- Matthew Pottinger said there was a “more than 50% chance” of China invading Taiwan over the next decade.
- Pottinger has previously said aggression would depend on how long Chinese leader Xi Jinping can stay in power.
- Pottinger served for two years as one of the Trump administration’s top Asian security advisers.
Matthew Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration, said there is more than a 50% chance that China will invade Taiwan over the next decade.
Ensuring Taiwan’s security is essential to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s goal of rejuvenating the nation, and the likelihood of Beijing trying to take Taiwan by force is “50% over the next decade.” It is said that it will be “more than”. Pottinger told Japanese outlet Kyodo News in an article published Wednesday.
Pottinger, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and former China reporter for Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, said: Served as Deputy National Security Advisor from September 2019 to January 2021At the time, he was the Trump administration’s top adviser on China and North Korea and one of its longest-serving aides.
and Washington Post March interviewhe linked the possibility of China invading Taiwan to the predicted timeline of Xi Jinping coming to power.
“I think he’s going to make this his legacy,” Pottinger said.
The former U.S. adviser said he didn’t know “what that means in terms of timing” but suspected Xi Jinping would try to stay in power for another decade.
China’s leader secured an unprecedented third term at the top in October but has yet to name a successor. Leading observers predict he will seek a fourth term and rule for another decade. in total.
President Xi Jinping is quietly gearing up for a conflict with Taiwan, building air raid shelters and field hospitals along the Taiwan Strait, passing new laws to allow the military to build up reserves, and encouraging the Chinese people to Pottinger said he seemed to be preparing for war with “a harsh word.” post.
His comments come as U.S.-China relations continue to strain, with top U.S. lawmakers stepping up ties with Taiwan.
Meanwhile, several leaked U.S. intelligence documents appeared to indicate major vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s air defenses. The Washington Post reported.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing have increased in recent months over issues such as Chinese surveillance balloons flying over the United States and Congressional pressure on Chinese-made platform TikTok that it could spy on Americans. .
In February, Secretary of State Anthony Brinken warned that China was considering sending arms and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine, but did not provide evidence to support the claim. He flatly denied the allegations.
In a recent interview with Kyodo News, Pottinger said he doesn’t believe China will supply weapons directly to Russia, and that the Xi Jinping administration knows such a move would cross a dangerous line. Stated.
Providing arms to Russia would disrupt China’s relations with the United States and Europe and cripple the Chinese economy, he said.
Pottinger usually takes a tough stance on China. He said in February when he testified before Congress on U.S.-China relations: He characterized Beijing as “stealthly waging” a new Cold War with the United States.
“Think of the Chinese Communist Party as a hungry shark that eats until its nose hits a metal wall,” Pottinger told congressional leaders.
“But when they see divers building shark cages, they don’t take it personally. To them, it’s just a business. That’s what they do,” he added. “The more resolutely and relentlessly we take steps to protect national security, the more respect our borders and the more stable the balance of power is likely to be.”
Pottinger and the Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to an insider’s request for comment outside of normal business hours.
