- While Ukraine’s military struggles on the ground, Russia leans heavily toward air strikes.
- A wave of Russian drones and missiles is straining Ukraine’s already strained air defenses.
- In response, Ukraine appears to be targeting Russian missile launchers to thwart Russian attacks.
Ukrainians are using drones to target Russian missile launchers as Russian missiles continue to hit Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine has attacked an air base in Russia that houses missile-carrying bombers. It also attacked bases in Crimea supporting the Black Sea Fleet and its missile-bearing warships.
The Ukrainian strategy is driven by desperation. Air defense is successful, but it cannot destroy all incoming cruise and ballistic missiles, let alone high-velocity hypersonic weapons. Indeed, even Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome, requested by Kiev, cannot destroy more than a fraction of incoming rockets.
To further complicate matters, Ukraine may be nearing the end of its anti-aircraft missile and artillery ammunition.
It is much easier to destroy a missile, its launcher and supply depot on the ground than to intercept it in flight, whether it is a cruise missile or an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Dara Massicot, a Russian military expert at the RAND Corporation think tank, said on a show in April that attacking these launchers is “a more efficient way” to deal with the problem. geopolitics decanted podcast.
The Ukrainian strikes, whether from bombers flying along the Russian-Ukrainian border or from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which continue to fire Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets, will overwhelm Russia’s missile-launching capabilities. Attacking bases and strongholds that can disrupt them.
The Black Sea Fleet is reinforced by ships of Russia’s Caspian Fleet, which arrived through the sea-linking canal.
Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, warships from other countries, such as the Northern Fleet, have been unable to enter the Black Sea ports due to Turkey’s invocation. Montreux ConventionWarships are prohibited from passing through the Turkish Strait between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.
“The Black Sea Fleet is a big chokepoint,” Massicotte said, adding that if the Russian ships there were “in any way disabled or neutralized so that they could no longer launch Kalibr, Russia would not be able to bring in additional naval assets.” I can’t,” he said.
The Black Sea Fleet successfully blocked Ukrainian ports, but Ukraine scored a major victory over the Black Sea Fleet. The fleet’s flagship, cruiser Moskva, was sunk by a Ukrainian land-based anti-ship missile in April 2022. Ukraine also attacked the port facilities supporting the Black Sea Fleet. In April, a Ukrainian drone caught fire. main fuel depot At the large Crimean naval base in Sevastopol.
After the sinking of Moscow, the frigate Admiral Makarov became the flagship of the fleet. In October damaged The Ukrainian drone attack was an unprecedented form of attack, and although the damage was limited, Russia still had to deal with a new threat.
Air force bases in Russia were also attacked. In December, Ukrainian drones blew up two airbases east of Moscow, hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border. The attack, though limited, was particularly significant because the base was home to Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 nuclear-capable long-range bombers.
Ukraine has also used weapons ranging from Soviet-era drones to US-made HIMARS guided rockets in attacks on Russian ammunition supplies. “There have been attacks on various routes to get ammunition to the front lines,” Massicotte said.
Ukraine presents a textbook example of asymmetric warfare. Although outnumbered by Russia, it uses innovative technology such as home-made drones to keep the balance.
But Russia is adapting. Ammunition depots, once carelessly placed near the front lines, have been moved out of range of Ukrainian artillery. Airplanes have also been relocated. “They have a lot of air force bases and they are withdrawing some of these assets,” Massicotte said.
The price of these measures is inefficiency in the delivery of goods. By forcing Russia to make that change, Ukraine’s strategy may be seen as successful, but the benefits won’t last forever.
“Russians are learning from those experiences,” Massicot added. “Probably little by little, but eventually you’ll learn.”
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy Magazine and other publications. He holds a master’s degree in political science.follow him twitter and LinkedIn.