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Reform Britain emerged without a trace. A party with little publicity and little core message has slowly and quietly gained support from one in eight voters – and now has its first member of parliament.
Lee Anderson’s switch to Reform on Monday is clearly detrimental to Rishi Sunak. Until just a few months ago, he was deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, and his outspoken media interventions and weekly show on GB News made him the most high-profile Conservative backbencher. He is one of the high-ranking people.
Let’s not get carried away. Mr Anderson has already been suspended by the Conservative Party for his abuse of Sadiq Khan, and his history as a Labor activist suggests he has weak loyalties even by MP standards. There is therefore little reason to think that many of his colleagues will follow him and join the reformers.
Previously Eurosceptic parties may gain support on the Brexit issue. There is now no comparable rallying cry to unite right-wing voters fed up and disillusioned with the Conservative Party.
So it remains to be seen how far the party can actually advance, and whether it will, in fact, be able to prevent a large majority of voters from fleeing (albeit reluctantly) to the Conservatives as the campaign comes to an abrupt end. There’s a reason to hold on.
That doesn’t alleviate the Prime Minister’s headache, at least in the short term. Some Tory MPs have rallied, while others have accused Mr Sunak of ousting Mr Anderson. And more importantly, it will alienate voters who sympathize with the new reformist representatives.
We return once again to the central point of current British politics. Labor has suffered an electoral disaster and the Conservative Party is headed for a humiliating defeat. The chance to reset in 10th place is running out.