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Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a two-day visit to China, bringing with him a large trade delegation. This is his first official trip abroad since his re-election to a fifth term and comes days after he appointed a civilian economist to head Russia’s Ministry of Defense, helping to keep Russia’s wartime economy afloat. It was shown that
But while China is Russia’s most important market, Putin is not just courting Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping calls President Putin his own. “Old friend” — for financial support. Russian leaders are also building strategic ties.
“The two countries are allies not because they share any particular cultural or ideological affinity. Rather, the two countries are united based on the old adage that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend.’ ,” said Non-Resident Fellow Chels Mikta.in Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA); I wrote it on Wednesday.
“Their partnership is largely pragmatic and based on the principles of hard power, devoid of ideological pretensions and pretensions,” Mikta added.
It’s realpolitik — “Both sides believe they have more to gain from continued cooperation than they risk to lose,” Mikta wrote.
Putin needs to balance China’s dominance over Russia’s economy
Russia’s economy has remained resilient despite more than two years of Western sanctions, thanks in part to state subsidies and wartime production expansion.
One economist went so far as to say that Russia’s economy is so driven by war that it cannot afford to win or lose in a conflict.
However, since starting the war in Ukraine, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China. Bilateral trade last year reached a record level of $240 billion, an increase of 26% from $190 billion the year before.
“It is no exaggeration to say that without China’s economic support, Russia would not have been able to withstand the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries in response to President Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Mikta wrote.
But the trade boom has served China’s interests more than Russia’s, leaving Russia in an increasingly weak position. For example, Russia currently “exports raw materials to China, while China sends finished products, especially cars, to Russia, the latter at the expense of Russia’s own auto industry,” she added.
Putin’s key agenda in China will therefore be to get China to support a proposed new natural gas pipeline from Siberia to China, since Russia has lost what was once its single largest market to Europe due to sanctions. .
“Russia could potentially tie China into a closer geopolitical alliance by selling large amounts of cheap gas to China,” the paper’s analysts said. Columbia University Global Energy Policy Center I wrote it on Wednesday.
“Persuading China to undertake such a large-scale project during a war would be a geopolitical coup for Russia, and it would be a geopolitical coup for Russia, as it would force Western and global allies to realize that they could deepen energy ties with China despite the war.” – South will have to prove it,” the energy analysts added.
But time is on China’s side, as China doesn’t actually need more gas until the mid-2030s.
China wants peace, but says it has more to gain from continuing the war
The Chinese government calls for peace in Ukraine, suggestion —Some analysts say vague —We accomplished that goal last year.
But some analysts say China has more to gain from continuing the war.
“It is actually in China’s interest for the United States to continue supporting Kiev, and therefore for Russia to not secure short-term gains,” CEPA’s Mikta wrote.
He added that “cutting off U.S. aid would work against China because Ukraine’s collapse would halt or at least slow Russia’s slide into vassal-like subordination to China.” .
Mikta, who is also a military intelligence officer in the U.S. Army, added that Beijing appears to have decided that supporting Russia merits retaliation from the West.
An increasingly dependent Russia could provide China with key military technologies developed in the post-Soviet era, which could allow China to make significant advances in this area.
Russia and China want to overturn Western dominance in the world order
Despite their efforts to outdo each other, Russia and China’s ties are becoming increasingly close, posing a problem for the West.
“The unity of purpose between the autocratic powers is now forging the closest ties in decades. China and Russia are forging a partnership that increasingly resembles a great power alliance,” Mikta said. wrote.
In particular, Beijing is looking further ahead than Russia, which is more interested in changing power relations in Europe.
He added: “Beijing is pursuing a far more ambitious project aimed at changing the foundations of the world order and ending the era of global Western domination once and for all.”