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U.S. Navy warships deployed in the Middle East are locked in a high-tempo operating environment, operating around the clock to combat unprecedented attacks from adversaries with no time to rest.
The Houthis have proven to be a cunning and formidable foe. Five months after multiple airstrikes by the US-led coalition to “disrupt and degrade” their capabilities, the militants are still wreaking havoc. They routinely force the US-led task force to intercept their missiles, bombing ships and flying drones that have turned the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping lanes into dangerous and deadly corridors.
The Houthis have attacked several ships in the past week and U.S. officials have said those attacks are unlikely to end soon, raising concerns the United States is becoming trapped in a costly and unsustainable conflict.
The Houthis have succeeded in dragging Washington into a protracted, costly, and resource-draining conflict and dramatically increasing shipping costs. Although no U.S. warships have been attacked, the U.S. must bear the mounting financial costs and wear and tear on its warships.
Through the operation, the rebels not only proved their role as a powerful asset in Iran’s proxy network, but also demonstrated their ability to threaten commercial shipping again in the future.
Is the US military’s approach sustainable?
The U.S. Navy has devoted significant resources to fighting the Houthis since the fall.
Navy officials said in recent weeks that the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, made up of the aircraft carrier USS Ike and several other warships, fired more than 500 rounds and logged tens of thousands of aircraft flight hours during the deployment.
The spent munitions alone are estimated at nearly $1 billion, Navy Secretary Carlos del Toro said in mid-April, a figure that has steadily risen in the two months since. This figure alone highlights the growing financial toll of the U.S. Navy’s presence in the region, and does not include other costs that help sustain the operations.
Business Insider has asked the Pentagon and US Central Command for the total cost of the anti-Houthi operation but has not yet received a response.
The U.S. has relied on expensive missiles to destroy Houthi weapons, which cost a fraction of the $2.1 million SM-2 interceptor. But experts say the Pentagon can sustain the increased missile spending for years to come. Of greater concern to the U.S., experts say, is maintaining the warships that launch these weapons.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warned last month that the Houthis will likely remain active for some time. Some of the Eisenhower bombing groups have already withdrawn from the Red Sea to rearm and resupply, and the Pentagon recently extended their deployment for a second time, by several months.
“We can sustain this as long as we continue to have the will to do it,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who served as commander of Central Command in the 2010s, told Business Insider. “We are large enough, we have the capacity and the capability to do it. It’s just a matter of willingness on our part to continue to pursue this.”
A White House National Security Council spokesman said the US remains committed to fighting the Houthis as they remain a “very real threat” and continue to cause problems for shipping companies.
“We’re going to do everything in our power to knock steel out of the sky and make sure the Navy is fully prepared for it,” John Kirby told reporters at a press conference on Tuesday when asked by BI about the sustainability of the mission.
“We believe it’s still important and we’re going to treat it as such when it comes to allocating resources,” he added.
The US has taken several steps to weaken the Houthi ability to use its firepower. US forces, in conjunction with the UK, have conducted several targeted strikes on rebel facilities and assets across Yemen, destroying missiles and drones before they can be launched.
The Pentagon argues that these routine actions have helped degrade the Houthis’ capabilities, but Haines said they were “not enough” to stop the insurgency, and experts agree that the U.S. military strategy has largely failed.
“Unfortunately, I think the Biden administration has settled into a tone where they feel they have to do something in response to the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping,” Brian Finucane, senior adviser to the US program at the International Crisis Group, told BI.
“And, as is often the case, that ‘do something’ means responding militarily, even if military options are not particularly effective at putting an end to them,” said Finucane, the former State Department lawyer.
The U.S. strikes have targeted radars, weapons storage and launch sites and other rebel assets in Yemen, but Votel said the Pentagon has stopped short of taking its military response to “the next level.” “We’re primarily trying to defend and blunt, not eliminate the capabilities that the Houthis actually have.”
An “unstable and uncertain” future
The Houthis have been fighting a devastating civil war for years with Yemen’s internationally recognised government and neighboring Saudi Arabia to the north, and their destabilising activities have been limited to the regional level.
But the attacks on commercial shipping have propelled the Houthis onto the world stage. By taking part in attacks on Israeli and Western navies, the rebels are positioning themselves as a valuable part of Iran’s regional proxy network. But more specifically, they are disrupting major shipping lanes and affecting the global economy.
For example, as of February, shipping through the Red Sea, which typically accounts for up to 15% of international maritime trade, had fallen by about 90% since December 2023, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency. report The announcement was made on Thursday. Ships taking an alternative route around Africa would have a longer and more expensive voyage.
The impact of these attacks, which affected interests in at least 65 countries, is a victory for the rebels.
“They appear to have succeeded in disrupting one of our key national security interests in the region, which is the free flow of commerce and goods through the waters of this region,” Votel said. “From their perspective, this has to be considered a success.”
The Houthis say their actions are in retaliation for Israeli military actions in Gaza, including an Oct. 7 massacre committed by Hamas, but U.S. officials deny these allegations, citing the wide range of countries affected by the naval attack.
It remains to be seen whether the new long-term ceasefire in Gaza will persuade the Houthis to stop their attacks. The rebels did not comply. The first ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was established in November.
Even if the ceasefire results in the Houthis halting their attacks, experts warn that it shows the rebels still have weapons that could target the route at any time. What they want is a strategy they can fall back on whenever they oppose any regional developments, such as Israeli military action, in the future.
“We are facing a period of great volatility and uncertainty in the near future,” Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an expert on the Persian Gulf region, told BI. [the] The Houthis will likely continue to assert some form of control over shipping traffic in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab waters. [Strait]”
Ultimately, short-term solutions to the Houthi conflict may not actually address the long-term threat posed by the insurgency, and the Biden administration’s current military approach is unlikely to permanently resolve the problem, experts say.
“The challenges posed by the Houthis will not have an easy military solution,” Finucane said. “It will require a long-term political and diplomatic process.”
But for now, Houthi attacks are sure to continue: In the past week alone, rebels have attacked multiple commercial ships and even hit one with an explosives-laden drone boat for the first time, something they have attempted unsuccessfully in previous attacks.
Several Western countries, including the United States, have warships in the region ready to shoot down missiles or drones at any time, but with no ceasefire in Gaza yet (which appears to be the only way to temporarily end the Houthi attacks), they are unlikely to pack up and go home anytime soon.
“We have to expect the Houthis to maintain their current pace for the time being,” Nadimi said. “So Western navies in the region are faced with a challenge as to whether they can sustain their assets.”