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The three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have been on the front line of the conflict between the West and Russia since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
They are enthusiastic supporters of Ukraine, along with Denmark. Gave the most help Russia has come under fire over Kiev’s GDP and is calling for tough sanctions against Moscow.
Although the Baltic states are members of NATO and the EU, they are in a precarious position: they border Russia and its ally Belarus, which they were part of until the collapse of the Soviet Union, and more than 20% of the population of Estonia and Latvia, and more than 5% of Lithuania, are of Russian descent.
All of this has placed them in the crosshairs of Russia, which appears to be using unconventional tactics against them that blur the line between war and peace and fall into the so-called “gray zone.”
In July 2023, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakna expressed concern Regarding possible Russian attacks, he said: “Hybrid threats exist, but we don’t know what kind of hybrid situation will arise. We’ve seen it before.”
NATO has also warned that Russia is intensifying hybrid warfare in the region and elsewhere in Europe, which could include “disinformation, sabotage, acts of violence, cyber and electronic interference, and other hybrid operations.”
Targeting the Baltic States
Indeed, a year later, in May 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned the Baltic states for all but severing ties with Russia. to add“We will also respond to hostile actions by the Baltic states with asymmetric measures, primarily in the economic and transport spheres.”
Moscow is suspected of carrying out its threats.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right) receives congratulations from Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda (left) during the Ukrainian Independence Day ceremony in Kyiv, Ukraine on August 24, 2023.
Jan Dobronosov/Global Images of Ukraine via Getty Images
A Russian proposal leaked in May outlined plans to realign territorial waters with Estonia, Lithuania and Finland. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Petrov said the proposal was not politically motivated but suggested it was necessary to ensure Russia’s security amid rising tensions in the region.
This proposal is It was deleted in a day The day after the spill, several buoys along the Narva River separating Russian and Estonian territorial waters were removed by the Russian Coast Guard.
Estonian officials called for calm, but Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielis Landsbergis took a tougher stance. “Russia is pursuing another hybrid operation, this time seeking to sow fear, uncertainty and doubt about Russia’s intentions in the Baltic Sea,” Landsbergis said. Said In response to the.
In addition, there has been a recent increase in interference with satellite navigation systems of civilian aircraft in the region, which originated from Russian territoryIt is unclear whether the sabotage was intentional, but the cities of Tallinn and Vilnius have blamed Moscow.
Russia and Belarus Condemned by EU officials The plan is to push migrants across Lithuania’s border with neighbouring Poland and use them as hybrid weapons. Lithuania has responded by temporarily closing some of its border crossings with Belarus, while Poland has deployed troops to its border. The Baltic states and Poland have Close the border In the event of a large influx of migrants from Belarus.
All three Baltic states Influence operationsIn Estonia, there has been an increase in the following types of sabotage: Damage to an undersea gas pipeline Estonia is building a communications cable with Finland. There are also concerns about espionage, cyber attacks and election fraud. Most arrested Russian agents Per capita in the EU.
Destabilization is the key
Hybrid warfare can involve a range of means – military, information, economic and civilian – but stops short of overt military action.
The goal is to destabilize a country’s government, institutions, or people, but often without identifying the perpetrators. Deliberate, targeted actions can appear accidental.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a military parade for the 76th Guards Air Assault Division in Pskov, Russia, March 1, 2020.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Hybrid warfare is not a new strategy, nor is it exclusively employed by Russia and its allies, but it has received increased attention since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 as Moscow used a variety of military and non-military means — described as hybrid — to occupy the peninsula without any real resistance from the Ukrainian side.
The ambiguous nature of hybrid warfare can make potential threats difficult to identify and address, but the Baltic states are prioritizing hybrid threats and strengthening their institutions to respond to them.
Interestingly, in its 2016 National Defense Initiative (the country’s comprehensive defense strategy), Latvia: Hybrid Threats and Russia For the first time, it was cited as a major threat to security.
And last week, together with his Polish and Czech counterparts, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics Expressed “Deep concern” over Russian hybrid threats.
“We will continue to act individually and collectively to counter these actions, strengthen our resilience, and work closely with our allies to ensure they are prepared to deter and defend against hybrid actions and attacks,” he said.