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The dispute over the Labor party’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict will not lead to a loss of votes or seats in the general election, according to a new poll.
But the party remains declining in popularity among Muslim voters, with support shifting to independent candidates and smaller parties such as the Greens and Reform Party.
The study by More in Common found that: IAccording to the report, in constituencies with a Muslim population of more than 20%, Labour won 58% of the vote, with the Conservatives coming in second with 15%.
In constituencies with the highest Muslim populations, both parties saw a slight drop in their vote share compared to 2019, with Labour down 6% and the Conservatives down 8%.
Independent candidates saw a significant increase in their share of the vote, from 2% in 2019 to 9%, with the Green Party, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats also making small gains.
Voters in areas with large Muslim populations are significantly more likely than the general population to support Palestine in its conflict with Israel, with 44% supporting it compared to 22% overall in the UK.
But pro-Gaza voters in these regions are also more likely to think Labour is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, with 41% believing Labour supports Palestine, compared to 17% who think it supports Israel.
Polls show that people in Muslim-majority areas are more likely than the general population to say the Middle East conflict is likely to influence their voting behaviour, but their most important issues are broadly in line with the rest of the UK.
62% of voters in these areas think the cost of living crisis is the issue most likely to influence their vote, compared to 64% in England. The second most important issue for both groups is support for the NHS, with 40% of Muslim voters saying this will influence their vote, compared to 53% nationally.
Luke Trill, director of More in Common, said the polls showed “there is little sign that the party will face a major electoral backlash” following its handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
“If you look at the polls in the 30 constituencies with the highest Muslim representation, although Labour’s vote share has fallen compared to 2019 and independent votes have increased, Labour would still win nearly six in 10 votes,” he said.
“This means that while there may be the odd shock result in an individual constituency on 5 July, overall we can expect Labour to continue to dominate in the UK’s most Muslim constituencies.”
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has faced criticism over his response to the Gaza conflict after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, saying he called for a ceasefire too late.
Last year the House of Commons faced a rebellion with more than 50 MPs, including frontbenchers, voting against the Prime Minister’s stance, leading to resignations from MPs across the country.
There were fears that Labour would lose votes because of its stance on the conflict, after Socialist Workers Party leader George Galloway won the Rochdale by-election by emphasizing a pro-Gaza stance during the election campaign.
The Labour Party has suspended the campaign of by-election candidate Azhar Ali after a recording emerged of him making anti-Israel comments while discussing the Gaza conflict.
Labour’s manifesto includes a commitment to a ceasefire in the conflict and a pledge to recognise a Palestinian state before the end of peace talks.
Earlier, Ireland, Spain and Norway announced plans to recognise a Palestinian state in May, joining more than 140 of the 193 UN member states that recognise the occupied territories.
Other European countries that have recognised Palestine as a state include Sweden, Cyprus, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Bulgaria, and Malta and Slovenia have indicated they may follow suit.
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The Reform Party has come under fire after campaigner Andrew Parker was found to have made racist comments towards Chancellor Rishi Sunak, with Nigel Farage expressing his “disappointment” over it.
meanwhile, I We’ve summarised the major parties’ pledges on key issues – see our breakdown for NHS, Education and Defence. You can also see each party’s key manifesto pledges broken down by party: Conservative, Green, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform UK.