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Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia has had several visible consequences for Kiev, one of which is that it has forced Moscow to redeploy some of its forces to the embattled Kursk region, exposing the fragility of its defenses.
But a month into the invasion, it has so far failed to produce the more immediate results Ukraine had hoped for, such as easing pressure on all sides of the front where Russian forces are advancing.
The situation in Kiev appears particularly serious in Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, where elite Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting for the city and have made significant progress in recent days, according to a statement from the Russian military. Western Information.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Shirsky said last week that the purpose of the Kursk invasion was Russian military reorientation “Moscow has already redeployed about 30,000 troops to Kursk, but these troops are mainly from other parts of the front,” he said.
“The enemy is trying to withdraw its troops from other directions and, on the contrary, is intensifying its activity in the Pokrovsk region,” the Ukrainian armed forces chief said.
Business Insider was unable to independently verify Sirushky’s figures, but US officials have previously confirmed that Russian troops have been moving into Kursk from other parts of Ukraine.
Conflict analysts at the Institute for War Studies think tank said Russia may have initially sent limited forces to bolster the push from Pokrovsk to Kursk, but these troops do not appear to have been engaged in frontline operations, and instead Moscow primarily redeployed forces from lower-priority areas of the front.
“The Russian military command is likely to be extremely reluctant to withdraw combat-capable forces from frontline areas such as the neighboring cities of Pokrovsk and Tretsk, which are under similar pressure,” ISW analysts said in a report on Saturday. evaluation.
“The redeployed forces are most likely reserve forces intended by the Russian military command to be used to reinforce the Russian Army Group in these directions and thwart the threat of a premature termination of the operation,” they added.
A former Ukrainian military officer who goes by the social media handle “Tatarigami” said Ukraine typically moves troops from quieter areas of the front line to stabilize more vital areas, but the Kursk invasion has limited the number of troops available for reinforcements.
“Does this mean the loss of Pokrovsk is imminent? No, but the balance of forces makes it more likely,” Tatarigami wrote. X Threads Last week, he added, “Despite Ukrainian efforts to dislodge Russian forces from their invasion of Kursk, the Russian leadership is hesitant to redeploy large forces from Pokrovsk.”
Kursk still puts Putin in a bind
While the shocking Kursk invasion has so far not succeeded in slowing the Russian military advance around Pokrovsk, it has nevertheless produced important positive results for Ukraine in just under a month.
Ukraine controls its periphery 1,290 square kilometersAccording to Shirsky, Russian forces attacked about 500 square miles of Russian territory in Kursk and about 100 settlements within the area, the largest attack by a foreign enemy on Russian territory since World War II.
“We will continue to replenish Ukraine’s foreign exchange fund and push the war into Russian territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said over the weekend, repeating comments he has made several times before.
George Barros, ISW geospatial intelligence team leader and Russia analyst, said the Kursk invasion highlights how Moscow has left large parts of its international border unguarded. That leaves the Kremlin with a dilemma: Continue and risk an attack from Ukraine, or send in troops to protect the border?
“If the Kremlin chooses the latter option, it will significantly increase the resources Vladimir Putin will need to support and wage this protracted war indefinitely,” Baros told Business Insider, highlighting the challenge for the Russian president.
“That’s not a trivial requirement,” he said.
This fighting power would either come from Russia’s operations in Ukraine, which would drain resources from the country, or from within Russian society, as Moscow would be forced to rely on conscription and augmenting its local forces.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, Russia is already looking for additional volunteers for Kursk. Information update Those hoping to take part in the operation were told last week that they would be on short-term contracts and would only work within certain geographies.
While the Kursk invasion may not require Russia to divert frontline forces from Pokrovsk, the operation will eventually reach a climax. When that time comes, Moscow will likely turn its attention to other parts of the front and to troops in other areas, Baros said, at which point a reshuffle could come into play.
“Operation Kursk and the redeployment of 30,000 troops are undermining Russia’s ability to prepare for future contingencies,” Baros said.
But the Kursk invasion also calls into question the view that the war is at a stalemate and that things won’t get better for Ukraine, Baros said — a realization that could become important as the U.S. presidential election approaches, with future military aid to Kiev at risk.
Moreover, Russia’s unexpected invasion is a reminder to policymakers that the U.S. plays a key role in the war and can influence the outcome in determining the rules of engagement, Barros said.
These considerations are of primary concern to Ukrainian officials, who have long urged the United States to remove all restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to attack military targets inside Russia. These efforts have Intensifying from the start of the invasion of Kursk.