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The Liberal Democrats will recalibrate their Blue Wall election strategy for 2024 to open up a new ‘western front’ against the Conservatives following their stunning victories in Somerton and Frome. I understand.
Sir Ed Davey’s party holds around 15 seats in Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire and Devon, with the Liberal Democrats second only to the Conservatives, and strategists believe they could turn orange in the next election to oust Rishi Snack from power.
Blue Wall Strategy has so far focused on seats held by the Conservatives in the South East of England, but Sarah Dyke’s bye-elections in Somerton and Frome overthrew the 19,000-strong Conservative majority by a 29 per cent swing, giving Sir Ed’s party hopes of winning the seats in the western region they held in the 2000s and early 2010s.
The Liberal Democrats’ battlegrounds for 2024 will still focus on their home county’s Blue Wall constituency, but while the Liberal Democrats were previously “cautious” about the Southwest, Somerton has forced them to rethink their strategy.
Until 2015, the Southwest was home to the Liberal Democrats, including Yeovil, owned by Paddy Ashdown and later David Lawes and Taunton Dean, who lost dozens of seats in elections following David Cameron’s coalition term.
Liberal Democrat strategist said: I Somerset has recently been viewed as an electoral ‘sweet spot’ as it has been home to people who moved from London after the pandemic and combined commuting to the capital two days a week with working from home.
The “Western Front” strategy will also target the relatively wealthy Chippenham in Wiltshire, but insiders say it will take one more election to regain the Cornwall seat previously held by the Liberal Democrats.
Senior party officials believe the prime minister is using the Conservative grip on Uxbridge and South Ruislip as a “comfort blanket” to turn a blind eye to the reality that Labor has overthrown the 20,000-seat majority in Somerton and Frome, Selby and Ainsty.
Liberal Democrat strategists said Mr Somerton’s result is not a one-off, as the party performed well in the 2022 and 2023 Southwest local elections and last year’s by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton.
Liberal Democrats also believe Mr Sunak is using Uxbridge as a “comfort blanket” to hide from the reality of what happened overnight in Selby and Somerton.
However, national polls suggest that Sir Ed’s party is still struggling to increase its current number of 15 MPs in Westminster. The LDP’s vote intent in the general election has been around 11 percent for more than a year, well below what it achieved in 2005, when it won 62 seats and had its best electoral success.