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Lawmakers will debate and vote today on whether to call for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas amid growing concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
World leaders have increasingly called for action in the region, with Prince William and Foreign Secretary David Cameron recently warning that too many lives are being lost in the region.
But today’s vote is as much about domestic politics as it is about international affairs.
The House of Commons was forced to vote by the Scottish National Party (SNP), which used the unusual day of opposition to table a motion calling for an immediate cease-fire.
This represents a political challenge for Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, who has so far resisted calls for an immediate ceasefire and suffered a popular uprising because of it.
Labor has now reversed its position and supports a ceasefire, but with important conditions attached to both sides stating the need for a cessation of fighting.
They claim this is an attempt by the party leadership to avoid a fresh rebellion in the House and promote a ceasefire that would allow the entire House to unite.
ceasefire amendment
The SNP motion states that the House of Commons “calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Israel”. It went on to express concern about the death toll in the region and “condemn any military attack on what is currently the largest refugee camp in the world.”
The motion calls for “the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas and an end to collective punishment of the Palestinian people,” but does not set out detailed terms for the ceasefire.
However, Labour’s amendments add even more detailed specifications.
The statement calls for an “immediate humanitarian cease-fire, an immediate cessation of fighting and a sustained ceasefire observed by all sides.” This is the first time the party has used such strong language.
The amendment also states that “if Hamas continues its violence, Israel cannot be expected to stop fighting, and Israelis are entitled to guarantees that the tragedy of October 7, 2023 will not happen again.” The agreement clearly states support for efforts to achieve a durable ceasefire.
Another amendment to the government-led motion does not call for an immediate ceasefire, but rather an “immediate humanitarian moratorium” aimed at leading to a ceasefire at a later point.
The bill supports “Israel’s right to self-defense in accordance with international humanitarian law against terrorist attacks by Hamas.”
“We urge negotiations to agree to an immediate humanitarian moratorium as the best way to halt fighting, obtain aid and rescue hostages,” and “move forward towards a durable and sustainable ceasefire.” I’m looking for something to do.
What is the importance?
The difference here is that the SNP is calling for an immediate ceasefire, while the Conservative government is arguing for a “pause” that could lead to a ceasefire in the future.
Labor has taken a compromise position, marking the first time the party has diverged significantly from the government’s position.
The party insists its position is in line with that of its allies Australia, Canada and New Zealand, and is not an overreach by Labor, but reflects its broader international position. It shows that you are doing it.
But Mr Starmer also hopes his amendments will avoid a new rebellion in which Labor MPs would vote in favor of SNP motions against their party’s position.
Differences over whether to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza have caused problems for Labor in the past, and Wednesday’s vote could reopen those divisions.
A similar motion tabled by the SNP in November saw 10 shadow ministers and parliamentary aides rebelling in support of an immediate ceasefire, and 56 Labor MPs ignoring the three-line whip and amending the King’s Speech. supported the idea.
Which amendment was chosen?
There is no guarantee that Speaker Lindsay Hoyle will choose Labour’s amendment, and Mr Starmer will face the difficult question of whether to order MPs not to vote for the SNP motion. He would then face a serious rebellion.
To the relief of the Labor leadership, Lord Lindsay announced that both Labor and the Government’s amendments would be tabled, with Labour’s amendments being voted on first.
Sir Lindsay Hoyle explained that the Gaza ceasefire debate was so important that he wanted MPs to be given the “widest possible range of options”.
The Speaker said: “This is a very sensitive issue and emotions are running high in the House, across the country and around the world. I think it is important that the House is able to consider the widest possible range of options on this occasion.”
The Liberal Democratic Party’s amendments call for an “immediate bilateral ceasefire,” the release of hostages, and a two-state solution without Hamas in power, but the speaker did not choose them.
The SNP and Government are angry at the Speaker’s decision to allow Labor’s amendments to be put to a first vote. This is because once passed, the motion will not be voted on as is.
Why Starmer could still face a revolt
Labor MPs have privately said that many want to vote in favor of the ceasefire, regardless of the details of the amendment. Some said they supported Mr Starmer’s alternative amendment but would vote for the SNP motion with or without it.
It is not yet clear whether the government will whip MPs to vote against Labor’s amendments or allow them to abstain.
If Conservative MPs are asked to vote against Labor’s amendment, it could be defeated. This means Labor will be forced to vote for the SNP amendment in its current form, with no conditions applying to the ceasefire.
This will force Labor MPs to choose between supporting or opposing the ceasefire, or abstaining. Given the strength of sentiment within the party, it is expected that a large number of Labor MPs will vote in favor of a ceasefire, regardless of what the leadership tells them to do.
As a result, Starmer could face a revolt on a scale even greater than that seen in November.