- Economists see a roughly 40% chance of a recession this year, the lowest since January 2022, a new Bloomberg survey finds.
- Respondents raised their expectations for GDP, consumer spending, private investment and government spending compared to last month’s survey.
- They expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.1% in the second half of this year, down from 4.2% in the previous survey.
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Economists are increasingly optimistic about the US economy.
in new bloomberg investigationEconomists see a roughly 40% chance of a recession this year, the lowest level since January 2022.
These hopes of avoiding a recession depend primarily on the strength of the job market and robust consumption. Respondents raised their forecasts for GDP, consumer spending, private investment and government spending compared to last month’s survey.
The 72 economists surveyed expect year-on-year consumer spending to rise by about 1.9%, compared with last month’s forecast of 1.5%. The GDP outlook has increased to 2.1% from 1.5% in the previous survey.
As for the labor market, economists now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.1% in the second half of this year, instead of 4.2% as expected last month. They also expect employers to add more jobs to the economy by 2026.
Recent data is already promising. Consumer spending was strong last month, but 0.7% increase Compared to the previous year. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year also exceeded expectations, recording an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 2%. Moreover, the unemployment rate is at his 3.7%, near historic lows.
Economists surveyed had put a 65% chance the economy would fall into recession in early 2023, but the situation has changed dramatically since then.