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Despite leading the Conservatives by a wide margin, Labor still lacks the support of around 40% of key voters who are undecided or disillusioned.
Sir Keir Starmer is trying to persuade floating voters, many of whom left Labor in 2019, to return to the party without losing support from the core left-wing electorate.
But the election is at risk among people who have not yet decided who they support or whether to vote, YouGov data seen exclusively. I revealed.
Analysis of key group opinion polls by Labor Together, a pro-Starmer think tank, shows that the key groups of voters expected to decide the next election are shifting towards Labor.
These groups, labeled ‘patriotic leftists’ (or ‘workington men’) and ‘disillusioned suburbanists’ (or ‘Stevenage women’), have been identified as key forces supporting voters. There is.
Within both of these groups, Labor maintains a comfortable lead over the Conservatives, with wide swings against them.
However, about 40% of both groups say they are still undecided or have no intention of voting.
Election outcome scenarios developed based on these polls suggest that the difference could significantly reduce Labor’s electoral majority. Another, although less likely, scenario in which reform voters move en masse to the Conservatives would render parliament dysfunctional.
Opinion polls show the so-called “patriotic left” in the “red wall” seats of the Midlands, North West and North East have turned anti-Tory after largely supporting the Conservatives in 2019, with 34% now leaning towards Labour. is supported.
This represents significant progress for Labor within this core group. In 2019, just one in five (20%) of these voters supported Labor.
However, the remaining voters are split between reformers (10%) and “none of the above” groups. Also, more than one in three people (37%) said they would not vote for any political party.
A similar pattern is emerging among so-called “disillusioned suburbanites” in small cities and towns, identified by the think tank as “the largest group of voters in marginal constituencies that will determine the outcome of the next election.”
Around a third (31%) support Labor, with just 11% saying they would vote Conservative.
However, more than four in 10 (43%) are either undecided or say they will not vote. In 2019, a significant proportion of this group (41 percent) did not vote.
The data highlights the reasons behind Sir Keir’s and campaign manager Morgan McSweeney’s concerns that there is no room for complacency in the run-up to the election.
This is encouraging at Conservative Party headquarters, with Tory election strategists hopeful of a “soft” lead for Labor, with recent by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood favoring Labor. It suggests that Conservative voters, rather than leaning voters, may have lost by staying home. .
“If Starmer really has momentum, the numbers will be huge. The Conservatives are not participating,” said a Tory MP. I recently.
Michael Fabricant, former Conservative party vice-chairman, also spoke. I : “Conservatives are staying at home for now, but if we see them getting results, they can win.”
With a pre-election budget due next week and an autumn statement likely before the election, Conservative strategists should focus on winning Tory votes. I feel that there is still something left to do.
Opinion polls show Labor’s lead at around 20 points. However, these voting intention surveys often exclude the results of people who do not vote, do not know who they will vote for, or refuse to respond.
According to a Labor Together YouGov poll of just over 2,000 adults conducted in mid-January, this group makes up more than a third (34 per cent) of all adults.
Josh Simmons, director of the think tank, said: I: “Labour has a huge lead among the groups of voters who will play a key role in this election. But this election is not over yet.
“Many voters are still undecided and will remain so for months to come. Labor and the Conservatives remain in contention over many important votes between now and Election Day.”
Opinion poll reveals weakness in Labor’s lead
Labor enjoys a lead in opinion polls that it could only dream of in 2020 when Sir Keir Starmer became leader. But even after positive polls and an unexpected by-election victory, the repeated message from the party’s leadership was that the party could not afford to be complacent. These data highlight why this is so important.
The party is seeking to reverse a pattern of voters drifting away from Labor toward the Conservatives, which peaked in 2019 but began years before that close election.
Senior sources often point out that voters in swing seats have been moving away from Labor since 2010, and even if they are now tentatively returning to the party, their vote is not guaranteed.
The fragility and uncertainty of Labour’s support among its target electorate is illustrated by the huge number of undecided and disillusioned voters shown here.
These data are not broken down by specific target seats, so it’s difficult to really know the true impact on election wins, but it’s clear that this group makes up almost 40 per cent of the group Labor is trying to win support from. The fact that Starmer and his men still have work to do.
Meanwhile, this poll analysis shows that fears that Labor would lose its traditionally left-wing core electorate if it focused all its efforts on winning floating seats have not materialized. ing.
With few alternative parties and a clear desire to topple the Conservative government, most activists and the progressive left have stuck with Starmer, even though he has moved away from more radical left-wing policies. ing.
pastor chloe
Labor Together used the data to create a model that set out scenarios for a supermajority in more than 400 seats. The think tank describes this outcome as “unlikely”.
Instead, they argue that if undecided voters return to the party they supported in 2019, the party could be on track to win a more conservative majority of 78 seats.
Another modeled scenario predicts a collapse of the Reform UK vote, with Labor failing to win a majority at all and potentially rendering parliament dysfunctional.
Although this scenario is considered unlikely, and although not all reform votes necessarily go in favor of the Conservatives, the reform bill would still be a good choice for the Conservatives by taking away some of their support. It has become a threat.
CCHQ strategists will want to persuade many Tory voters to stick with them.
The party remains a threat, with Reformists holding every seat and high-profile former vice-chairman Lee Anderson openly talking about joining the Reformists.
In good news for the Labor leader, the analysis shows the party has not lost support from its core electorate, traditionally left-leaning voters.
Critics of Starmer’s leadership, including grassroots group Momentum, have warned that the party risks losing left-wing voters without a more progressive platform.
But analysis shows that the Green Party has not lost significant support from these groups, or even stopped voting altogether.
One group labeled the ‘activist left’ now supports Labor more than they did in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn, with 62% now supporting Labor, up from 56% under Jeremy Corbyn. Points higher.
So-called “centrist liberals” – older, wealthier left-wing voters – have tilted heavily towards Labor since 2019.
Five years ago, this group was almost evenly split between Labor supporters (26%) and Conservative supporters (28%).
Labor now has a 28-point lead among these voters, with 41% backing Labor, compared to 13% backing the Conservatives.
Christabel Cooper, director of research at Labor Together, said the analysis showed support for Labor “among very different types of voters”.
She said: “Starmer achieved what Corbyn could not. Labor retained its core progressive vote and also gained support from more socially conservative and centrist voters.”
Who are the key groups identified?
Labor divided voters into six main groups in its 2023 document.
Of these six groups, “patriotic leftists” and “disillusioned suburbanites” were highlighted as essential to Labour’s victory.
Patriotic Left – “Workington Man”
These make up the so-called red wall seats in the Brexit-supporting areas of the North and Midlands. They are older than average and traditionally classified as economically left-wing but socially conservative.
Disillusioned Suburbs – “Stevenage Woman”
Another target group is young, economically unstable people living in small towns and cities. Labor Together defines them as “slightly to the left on economics and slightly to the right on social and cultural issues.”
the activist left
These people make up part of Labour’s core vote and are the young, educated and most progressive group. They live in cities and university towns, are economically left-wing, and very liberal when it comes to cultural issues.
centrist liberal
Another core group of Labor voters are the wealthiest, typically university-educated and living primarily in urban areas and the south. They are to the left of the center.
british traditionalist
This group is the oldest of the six and forms part of the Conservative Party’s core base. They are generally economically stable, socially conservative, and economically centrist.
rural rights
Another older core group of Conservative voters. These are the most financially secure and the most right-wing on economic issues.