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Rishi Sunak wants inflation to fall to the 2% target before an election, senior government officials said in a new sign Britain heads to an autumn vote.
The Prime Minister made good on his promise to halve inflation as soon as figures showed that price growth had fallen from 10.1% in January 2023 to 4.6% in October 2023.
But Mr Sunak wants to go a step further by bringing inflation back to the Bank of England’s 2% target, set to ensure economic stability. This would be a totemic moment given that he entered Downing Street at a time when inflation had peaked at $11.1. In October 2022, st.
Critics claim the chancellor claimed credit for lowering inflation, despite this being the Bank of England’s power to set interest rates.
But his aides point to his resistance to calls for a one-year tax cut to keep civil servant pay in check and as evidence that Mr Sunak is playing a key role in curbing inflation.
Senior government officials spoke about the timing of the election, with Mr Sunak saying he would like to see “inflation fall to 2%” before going to the polls.
Another government official added: “We definitely want inflation to come down. Inflation is a tax on everyone.”
I It is understood the Treasury expects inflation to return to its 2% target by the summer.
The bank said inflation rose to 3.5% in February, 3.1% in March, reached 2.1% in April and fell to 1.9% in May and June. We expect it to rise again.
On the face of it, this still leaves open the possibility of a spring election.
But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will not report April’s inflation rate, which is expected to be closer to target, until May 21.
So, if the predictions come true and Mr Sunak waits for inflation to reach his target, the six-week campaign period would mean a vote in early July, but most people in Westminster I think the possibility of that happening is extremely low. The next most likely time is autumn.
The plan to wait until inflation is firmly under control before visiting has been welcomed by some Tory MPs.
said backbencher Matt Warman. I: “I think this is a very wise thing to do, because at the end of the day the economy is going in the right direction and it needs to move in that direction faster. And I think that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor can do that. I think you’re right in wanting to further prove this.”
Mr Warman said he would likely consider inflation and employment figures before deciding when to hold an election to ensure the public was aware of any changes in negative headlines about the economy.
“These headlines are what people see, so the more proof we can get that they’re no longer continuing, the better, but that will take time,” he added.
I It is understood that security officials are investigating the risks of holding a fall election at the same time as the US vote, and this comes even as both transatlantic governments focus on campaigning during the period. Global instability that we are content to avoid.
Meanwhile, some government officials fear the Red Sea crisis could derail inflation, as Houthi attacks on container ships threaten to push prices higher.
This could mean Mr Sunak will not be able to achieve his ambition of reaching 2% before the election.
The Prime Minister previously said the “working assumption” was an election in the second half of this year.