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Azerbaijan, a small oil-rich South Caucasus nation, has big plans to upgrade its small fighter jet fleet over the next decade. But Baku is likely to get cutting-edge fighter jets from Pakistan and Turkey, rather than relying on Russia, which has been its traditional arms supplier for decades.
The withdrawal from Russia shows that long-time allies like Azerbaijan are finding effective arms sellers who are not bothered by the problems with Russia’s newest fighter jets.
Unconfirmed report Azerbaijani and Pakistani In late February, media reported that Azerbaijan had reached an agreement with Pakistan to buy an undisclosed number of JF-17C Thunder fighter jets for $1.6 billion.Azerbaijan officially joined Turkey announced its TF Khan fifth-generation fighter program in July last year, strongly hinting that it would acquire the aircraft. Khan made the first flight During February.
Formerly Russia commercially available 4.5 generation Su-30SM, Su-35, MiG-35 Fighter jets were sent to Azerbaijan in the late 2010s. The President of Azerbaijan said in 2018 that his country: spent $5 billion About Russian military hardware. But for now, it seems unlikely that Baku will turn to Moscow for 4.5-generation aircraft. Azerbaijan is even less likely to invest in Russia’s troubled fifth-generation Su-57 or Su-75 “Checkmate” fighters.
Frederico Borsari, a defense expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said Russia was Azerbaijan’s largest arms supplier until recent years.
“However, the situation is gradually changing as Russia has launched a reckless war of aggression against Ukraine and has begun to lose influence among the Caucasus countries amidst the deteriorating situation in Ukraine and financial constraints,” Borsari said. he told Business Insider. “Turkey, in particular, took advantage of the situation from a security perspective and began to expand military cooperation with Baku, including arms sales.”
As a result, Turkish sales to Azerbaijan began to increase from 2017, but Russian arms exports stopped around 2019.
“Against this background, the rumored purchase of JF-17s from Pakistan further strengthens the trend of a gradual disengagement from Moscow’s positions and undermines the performance of Russian aircraft (and the Air Force as a whole) in Ukraine. It could also be the result of a decline,” Borsari said.
Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military aviation journalist, believes that Azerbaijan will use its oil resources to overhaul its manned fighter fleet until Khan begins operating production lines “in large quantities” around 2033. He says that it is understandable to decide.
“Given the close ties with Turkey and the ambiguous relationship with Russia, it is understandable to prefer the latter, especially given Russia’s own problems with putting the Su-57 into service,” Roblin told Insider.
Roblin noted that Azerbaijan faces “difficult considerations” when considering a “politically reliable vendor” for the new fighter jet.
“Russia has historically sold arms to Azerbaijan, but neither Russia nor Western democracies are ideal suppliers,” Roblin told Insider. “Pakistan and Turkey, as well as Pakistan and China, may seem more reliable partners for Baku, but it is unlikely to terminate the deal over human rights issues or the possibility of a future war with Armenia.”
Borsari said Azerbaijan’s participation in the Khan Plan is first and foremost a “natural outcome of the long-standing and growing security partnership” between Ankara and Baku, which stems from the two countries’ close political and diplomatic ties. He said there is. Turkey provided training and weapons that enabled Azerbaijan to defeat Armenian forces in the 2020 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
“For both countries, this seems like a win-win solution,” Borsari said. “This selection provides Turkey with long-term contracts and customers in the defense sector, while ensuring the sustainability of the Baku Air Force in areas such as logistics, training and maintenance with a close ally. It will be possible.”
CEPA analysts said that “expected problems” in Russia’s military aircraft industry, “big disappointments surrounding the Su-57” and “poor performance” of other Russian fighters in Ukraine “forced Baku to make the choice.” “This is a possible factor.” This is a Turkish project. ”
Russia is promoting the Su-57 as a rival to the U.S. F-22 and F-35, but the fifth-generation fighter has some significant drawbacks. Analysts note that it does not have a fifth-generation engine. Body panels are not placed closely enough This is an important feature of stealth aircraft, as it reduces the aircraft’s radar cross section.
It will also be important for Azerbaijan to acquire the JF-17, which was jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation.
A Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet performs at the MAKS 2021 Air Show held in Zhukovsky, Russia, on the outskirts of Moscow, on July 25, 2021.
Reuters/Tatiana Makeeva
Azerbaijan’s neighbor and rival Armenia acquired four Su-30SMs in 2020. The Su-30SM is more advanced than Azerbaijan’s MiG-29, but they did not face each other in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
“The JF-17 is a modernized version of the MiG-21/J-7 with fourth-generation technology,” Roblin said. “In terms of raw performance and maximum radar detection range, it cannot match the larger, faster, heavier payload-lifting Su-30 twin-engine fighter.”
Nevertheless, the Block III version that Azerbaijan plans to obtain has significant advantages. Roblin noted that the new system could give the Su-30SM an “electronic advantage” over the KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array radar, which is said to be more powerful and more resistant to jamming. Moreover, when combined with China’s PL-15E air-to-air missile, it could rival its Russian counterpart.
“Thus, while not strictly an overmatch, the JF-17C could potentially hold its own against the Armenian Su-30SM, depending on the tactics and training used by both sides in the event of an air battle.” Roblin said. “In contrast, Azerbaijan’s Soviet-vintage MiG-29s purchased from Ukraine, while generally sound aircraft, have older electronics and much inferior radar than the Su-30SM.”
These latest rumors about Azerbaijan’s interest in the JF-17 mean Baku wants to replace the older aircraft with its aging MiG-29s and serve as a stopgap solution until Khan becomes available. This suggests that he is thinking that.