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Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio have long warned that a recession is imminent, but the pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy It seems to be avoiding predictions.
In September 2022, Dalio said: market watch The US is likely to enter a recession in 2023 or 2024 as stocks and bonds slump.
Around the same time, Dimon said: CNBC He said he believes the U.S. economy is “actually still strong,” but that runaway inflation, high interest rates and the war in Ukraine could send the U.S. into recession within “six to nine months.”
Many prominent investors, billionaires, and economists predicted a devastating economic storm in the United States, but the economy has so far remained So far, it has exceeded my expectations.
“I was bearish on the economy,” Dalio said. wall street journal. “I understood it wrong.”
Dalio told the newspaper that he expects the economy to slow as high interest rates “suppress private sector demand and asset prices.”
“You would have thought that some of the fiscal stimulus would have worn off,” Dimon told the newspaper.
The strong performance of the US economy has led some experts to believe that the country is heading for a “soft landing”. But not all economists believe this rosy outlook.
Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi’s chief U.S. economist, told CNBC in February that the U.S. is headed for a recession in mid-2024, noting that employees are working fewer hours and inflation remains too high.
Economist David Rosenberg also questioned the dominant view of America’s “fast-growing economy.” The president of Rosenberg Research also pointed to a decline in working hours, but also noted other alarming indicators, including a decline in the number of new homes built in January and declines in industrial production and retail sales.
In a recent interview with CNBC Fast Money Halftime ReportDimon also expressed some pessimism, saying, “Markets can change their minds quickly.”
“Remember in 1972, you were feeling great too. And before the crash you were feeling great, but after that things change,” he said.