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Moderate conservatives have long feared that an election loss could push the party further to the right.
Rishi Sunak’s refusal to abandon his plan to deport Rwanda, his recruitment of Lee Anderson, who has now left for Reform, as his deputy leader, and his failure to rule out Nigel Farage returning to the party, all reflect this. This is contributing to the growing perception among centrists that the party is being treated unfairly. After leaving the EU, things have become even more extreme.
With Kemi Badenoch emerging as the clear front-runner to become the next leader alongside the likes of Suela Braverman and Priti Patel, there will be a right-wing takeover if the Prime Minister loses the next election. Concerns about this will only increase further.
But moderates have started organizing in recent months, and the One Nation Conservative group is a much more coordinated and vocal faction in preparation for the coming battle.
Opinion polls suggest that More centrist voices could maintain the balance of power within the party After being wiped out in the Conservative Party election. But with the right wing allegedly already plotting, MPs realize they need to bring together candidates quickly.
Despite losing the last two leadership elections, Penny Mordaunt is emerging as the best option.
Commons has long been a popular figure within the party and did reasonably well as a leadership candidate in both 2022 elections, coming third behind Liz Truss in the summer and second behind Rishi Sunak in the autumn. Ta.
She attracted support from across the party. As well as centrists such as Alicia Kearns and Caroline Noakes, the Brexiteer Andrea Leadsome campaigned, as well as support from right-wing mavericks such as David Davis and Bob Seeley.
However, Mordaunt was by no means a “moderate” candidate at the time, with Tom Tugendhat and Rishi Sunak attracting the support of more traditional centrists.
But after being hurt by Liz Truss’ victory over Mr Sunak, the moderates are focusing on candidates who can win first-stage votes among MPs and gain support from right-wing grassroots members and members of the party. The situation may be about to change, with people increasingly recognizing the importance of coming together. Secure victory in the crucial second stage vote that will decide the leadership race.
“The key will be to unite around the right candidate,” one moderate cabinet minister said after the election defeat, citing fears of a right-wing takeover.
The minister said Ms Mordaunt was becoming increasingly attractive to centrists, who believed she had “broader appeal at the grassroots” and that Ms Mordaunt was becoming increasingly attractive to centrists, who believed she had “broader appeal at the grassroots” and that Ms He said this is because he believes he can defeat even the right wing.
According to Conservative Party sources, the leader of the House of Commons not only drinks with MPs, but also disrupts the so-called “rubber chicken circuit” of association dinners, engaging in what appears to be a sabotage.
“She always attends chicken dinners in her district, easily attracts donors, and always hosts drinks for members of Congress,” said one person.
I But Mr Mordaunt, who is more deeply embedded in Parliament than other MPs as meeting with candidates and MPs is a regular part of his job, is focused on delivering electoral victory for the Conservative Party. I understand what you’re getting into.
She also believes that she is on the right on important issues and believes that this is ignored when she is compared to Ms Badenoch and Ms Braverman further up the spectrum. ing.
But while Mr Mordaunt may want to be a unifying candidate, some warn against trying to be all things to all people.
“There are questions about whether the left wing of the party actually wants to unite around her,” the insider said.
“If she acts too much on both sides of the party, she might end up alienating one or the other. It’s a very difficult tightrope to walk.
“And her performance in both past leadership rounds has been lackluster on both policy and communication, lacking a clear vision and narrative.”
The source also said that with an expected Labor onslaught in the general election, perhaps Mr Mordaunt’s biggest challenge is to hold on to his Portsmouth North constituency seat, which held a majority of 15,780 in the last two elections but with a margin of less than 10,000. He emphasized that there is.
“Penny is a very strong and popular candidate and will be a solid choice to be the party’s next leader,” the source said.
“As Leader of the House of Commons, she demonstrated the astute communication skills the party may need in its fight against Labor.
“But she has a lot of questions and hurdles to overcome. The most urgent thing is whether she can win the seat.”
With the Tory behemoth rolling across the country, she could use this to her advantage, as if she were to win she would immediately have a powerful pitch to take on her opponent Sir Keir Starmer. Some people think that it is.
“What’s interesting about Penny is that One Nation is saying we need to back Penny because she could lose her seat.
“But if I were Penny, I’d be very happy…because you don’t want to be the absolute frontrunner and everyone’s after her.
“Because if Penny wins the seat, she will be in pole position.
“She always attends chicken dinners in her constituency, easily attracts donors, and always hosts drinks for MPs.
“If I were her, I would be happy if people thought someone like Tom Tugendhat, who she has sidelined, would be the candidate.”
Meanwhile, some have warned that Mr Mordaunt could face a tough challenge from Mr Badenoch. Particularly because the Commerce Secretary has appeal across partisan lines, with one former cabinet member saying she is more appealing to moderates than some think.
Regardless of whether the party fares well after the election, it is unlikely that it will go so far as to support Mr Farage.
The former minister said Mr Lee Anderson was doing everything the party could to the right and Mr Farage could only join “over my dead body”.