Would You like a feature Interview?
All Interviews are 100% FREE of Charge
Memo to Tory MPs: This is not the reason Rishi Sunak is doing so badly in the polls.
There are certainly criticisms of the Prime Minister, and it is possible (yet) that another Tory leader could actually boost the party’s fortunes. But the explanation for many voters’ unhappiness is quite simple. They just feel that things are worse than they were at the last election, and in some cases worse than when the Conservatives came to power in 2010.
Soaring inflation has squeezed the purchasing power of nearly everyone, and rising interest rates have taken a heavy toll on mortgage holders and other borrowers. Mr Sunak believes his best chance of moving up in the polls (and weeding out recalcitrant MPs) is for the economy to improve.
So the faster-than-expected fall in inflation yesterday is good news for him. Lower interest rates could be even better news. No one expects the Bank of England to act at today’s meeting, but economists are considering a first rate cut by the end of June. That would clear the way for two or even three candidates before the fall elections.
No wonder some Conservatives are openly calling for the central bank to cut interest rates faster. Jeremy Hunt will never go that far, but he has lobbied as hard as he can, mindful of the need to demonstrate he respects the independence of rate setters.
But this is not an automatic win for the government. Despite average living standards rising again and national insurance being cut twice, polls show voters have little faith in ministers.
The risk for Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt is that negative perceptions of the Conservative Party become so entrenched that the economic cheer turns into political gain. But Labor’s job will be easier if it takes over in the election.