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In just over a month, Labor’s significant double-digit lead over the Conservatives will face its first major national test in the May 2 local elections.
The result will show not only the actual strength of each party at the ballot box, but also whether Sir Keir Starmer really has a healthy majority and is aiming for No. 10. It could also affect the timing of the general election and who becomes prime minister in the general election.
Tory insiders say leadership rebels promise ‘bloodshed’ in local elections for Rishi Sunak, followed by another ‘Mayday from hell’ to remove him from office I predict that.
Few believe the Prime Minister can do anything other than take the extremely harmful step of swamping local votes to win 2,600 seats in the 107-parliament.
The Conservatives remain at 989 seats from their high point in May 2021, when Boris Johnson gained 200 seats and gained control of 13 parliaments due to the so-called “vaccine bounce.”
This time around, Conservative Party insiders predict up to 800 losses, leaving the party with between 180 and 250 seats.
This could be expectation management, given that leading election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher think the Conservatives could lose up to 500 MPs.
In any case, a senior Conservative Party official acknowledged that the party would be “struggling from a clearly very high baseline” and that losses were expected to be “in the hundreds”.
Some within the party believe there is a silver lining for Mr Sunak if the party can hold on to the metropolitan mayoral race held by Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Midlands. Some people think that it is.
“The key players are Mr Houchen and Mr Street,” said one Conservative strategist. “If they stay, it improves the story and shows that we can win.
“The streets are huge and there are reasons to support him. Labor councils are terrible and the Muslim vote may stay in the country.” [in protest at the party’s stance on Gaza]”
But others take a more pessimistic view. 1 red wall MP Both mayors said, “It’s over.” The lawmaker said, “I can’t imagine losing to either side.” “They may have great name recognition, but they just need to look at the electoral math.”
Others are optimistic that Labour-run Birmingham City Council’s bankruptcy could save the West Midlands and lead to Sir Keir Starmer’s party being punished in other struggling local authorities. are doing.
“May 2nd is going to be very difficult,” said a senior Conservative Party MP. “But when Labor councils perform very poorly, meaning they are underfunded, they actually tend to be penalized for that.
“That’s what happened in Croydon and Harrow. In Enfield, it’s still run by Labor, but it made a profit last time.
“So it’s not a foregone conclusion. It’s not going to be good, but I can’t predict that it’s going to be completely disastrous.”
Meanwhile, Redwall Conservative MPs say the Conservatives have a chance in similar post-industrial seats in the north and the Midlands, but in Bluewall, a wealthy seat in the south where the Liberal Democrats are the main opposition party. He suggested it would be a struggle.
“If you look at last year’s local council elections, they obviously had a very bad result, but in the Red Cliff area it wasn’t that bad,” the councilor said.
“During that time, there were glimmers of hope, but in the south they were completely wiped out. There is hope in certain areas.
“I think we can secure 250 seats. It will be a waxing and waning situation in some areas, but I think we can achieve 250 seats.”
The former Conservative minister said the atmosphere on the doorstep was not one of despair. They said: “There is no sense that Conservative support is collapsing. At the moment it’s more about disaffected voters leaving, but there has certainly been a slight increase in the number of former Conservatives, and Labor Party Some of them are moving towards reform.”
But one Conservative Party official summed up the prevailing mood within the party: “I think there’s a very good chance there will be a bloodbath (with locals).”
The impending disaster has sparked fresh speculation that Mr Sunak could face a leadership challenge, calling for an early general election in June even if he is likely to win. There is a possibility that it will be implemented.
The rebels are sharpening their knives, and one Conservative Party official with knowledge of the plotters’ plans said that although previous rebellions have subsided, the leadership issue is “not resolved at all.” said.
The source said Mr Sunak would face a “Mayday from hell” followed by a “busy month” in a so-called “grid of shit” designed to destabilize the premiership. Stated.
They refused to rule out the possibility of more MPs announcing no-confidence motions, insisting only that the rebels were “planning”.
Asked how Sunak could avoid the threat, the official said: “There is always resignation.”
One option the Prime Minister is reportedly considering is a general election in June after the May 2 vote.
But this was rejected, if not ruled out, by senior Tory officials. “I think everyone needs to enjoy the long weekend and take a cold shower.
“We’ve been working towards October or November for over a year and there’s been nothing to suggest that’s changed.”
A No. 10 source said Mr Sunak’s “realistic assumption” remained that an election would be held “later this year”, adding that despite persistently poor poll results, the prime minister has doubts about himself and denied reports that he was starting to feel tired during his tenure.
A source said, “I don’t think anyone who said that has ever spent time with him!”
Meanwhile, Tory strategists say Downing Street is explaining the possibility of an early election by instilling fear of a leadership vote too close to the election and encouraging MPs to thwart attempts to oust Mr Sunak. I think it’s to make people think twice before participating.
“Mr Sunak is wise to raise his sword to the rebels,” the strategist said.
Meanwhile, members of Congress are skeptical that the leadership challenge will be successful or even meaningful.
“[The local elections are] No matter what you do, it will be bad. I understand that. I don’t think there are any numbers other than total annihilation for him (Sunak) to leave. ”
Meanwhile, another MP urged the rebels to retreat, saying: “The best way to stay here is not to conspire against the prime minister, but to make a bloody effort over the next eight months. ” he said.
But another source said morale among MPs had deteriorated after opinion polls showed his party’s approval rating at 19%, just 4 percentage points higher than the reformers’ 15%.
The Prime Minister should recognize the threat Richard Tice’s party poses in vulnerable seats and explain to backbenchers how to deal with it, the former minister said.
And despite some MPs insisting that Mr Sunak is safe until after local elections on May 2nd, he said: He suggested that action could be taken sooner against Mr Sunak’s leadership because of concerns. Number of seats.”
“Local elections are in a few weeks,” the former minister said. “There is a feeling among some members of Congress that more urgent action is needed.”