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Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has fallen by six points, but the latest poll shows it remains on track to win a substantial majority at the next general election.
The Savanta poll is telegraph Voter turnout earlier this week (April 5-7) showed Labor leading by 15 points with 42% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives’ 27%.
Reform UK saw its figure drop by two points to 10% compared to Savanta’s previous poll on 28 March, while the Greens recorded a modest increase of 4%.
Latest polls show Labor’s lead over the Conservatives is at its lowest since mid-February 2024.
However, according to the seat modeling website Electoral Calculations, if these results are repeated in the general election, Labor is expected to win a majority of 188 votes.
Chris Hopkins, head of political research at Savanta, said: “It has been a period of relative calm at Westminster, with the government appearing to have a firm grip on the key issues of the day, the Israel-Gaza conflict.
“It would almost certainly help the Conservatives in the eyes of voters if they weren’t battling headlines of scandal and discord.”
“Please consider this carefully as this is just one poll and may be an outlier.
“Labour’s 15-point lead could be the difference between a crushing electoral defeat and complete annihilation for the Conservatives. That being said, these results also come as Rishi Sunak, with key local elections just weeks away, It will encourage them.”
Savanta’s 2024 poll has so far shown Labor leading by 19, 17, 14, 19, 12, 14, 18, 17, 18, 18, 20 and 21 points and currently leads by 15 points. .
This comes after a YouGov poll last week also showed the Conservatives are headed for a similar defeat in the next election to 1997, when they won a total of 165 seats.
The report, published last Wednesday, found that Labor would win 403 seats, while the Conservatives would be reduced to 155, giving Labor a majority in the House of Commons with 154 seats.
The Conservatives won just 155 seats, lower than the 365 they won in the 2019 general election.
Using multi-stage regression and post-stratification (MRP) methods of polling, this analysis looked at prominent Conservative Party figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Sir Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. It turns out that people tend to lose their constituencies. .
Other Tory bigwigs at risk include Cabinet Secretary for Science Michelle Donnellan and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.
Another recent poll by Survation for Best for Britain suggests the Conservative Party could have fewer than 100 MPs in the general election, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party gaining 468 seats. It is predicted that