Would You like a feature Interview?
All Interviews are 100% FREE of Charge
Conservatives are raising hopes that Rishi Sunak’s flagship policy breakthrough to airlift migrants to Rwanda could give the government a much-needed boost.
Next week will be a critical moment for the prime minister, as the protracted battle over the Rwanda Security Bill is expected to be settled in the House of Lords. And the parliamentary battle is likely to go Sunak’s way. I I understand.
Several of the 20 or so Conservative MPs who regularly support the government in Lords votes but do not support the Rwanda Bill signaled: I Since the prime minister has made it clear that he will not compromise on any amendments, it will likely be folded into the back of the bill from now on.
The bill could go through one last “ping-pong” in parliament, but with passage expected by Wednesday, Mr Sunak believes the bill will indeed finally avoid legal challenges and get on the plane. It could face an even bigger battle over whether it will be able to do so. air.
But pollsters warn that even if they did, it would not be enough to save the prime minister.
Conservative insiders say now could be a turning point to change the party’s dismal polling record, with right-wing reform gaining momentum and a final roll of the dice for Mr Sunak to avoid a crushing electoral defeat. I think there is a possibility that the result will be .
Some of the most staunch opposition groups, who had previously refused to support the bill, now said they would support it.
Lord Garnier, the Conservative Party’s former attorney general, said the bill’s declaration of Rwanda as a “safe country” was like declaring “every dog is a cat”. I: “While I have expressed my disapproval of this bill in my speech on committee stage and have not voted in favor of this bill, I would like to thank my whip and my Lordships for the last round of ping pong. “I told them I would vote for the bill.” It’s just so that the House, as the ultimately elected House, can do whatever it wants. ”
Another dissenter, Lord Reckden, said: “The House of Commons is already doing its job and if it is completely unwilling to compromise, it should not try to amend it any further.”
This would pave the way for the planes to finally be put into service, and one Conservative strategist said it would show skeptical voters that the government was capable of “capable and delivering”, and that Labor He said that the results would be “significant” as it would form a “big wedge” between the two countries. ” and promised to scrap the plan even if it worked.
“This is a double, double win,” the strategist said. “If planes could fly in the sky”
Meanwhile, a senior Tory MP said the policy was not a “trump card” for Mr Sunak, but it was “an important message to the British people that we are doing everything we can to stop illegal immigration into this country”. He said it would be.
Meanwhile, former government officials say the policy will be difficult to implement, so Mr Sunak promises to call an early election and get on a next-day flight, then sends a message that “Mr Starmer will block the policy”. He suggested that we should consider campaigning under these slogans.
However, the pollster believes the policy needs to work for Mr Sunak to benefit from it, and it needs to be accompanied by good news on the economy.
Wednesday could be a key moment as the bill is expected to become law and inflation statistics are expected to show another decline in price increases.
JL Partners’ Tom Lubbock said turning around the Conservative Party’s dismal poll numbers would be like “converting an oil tanker”, but the Rwanda plan would involve a “complete reset” of Mr Sunak’s premiership. “This is one of the only means left,” he said.
But he warned that the policy could amount to cuts to National Insurance that go against the larger trend of overall tax increases. Similarly, Rwanda’s deportation boost could be undermined by an expected surge in asylum seekers crossing the Channel during the warm summer months.
“Part of the problem with the National Insurance cuts is that they fit into the category of pushing against very strong headwinds of what’s happening to the Conservative brand,” Mr Lubbock said.
“Public opinion on something like this is like an oil tanker, because it’s very important to a lot of the public, it’s not a new issue, and the public feels they understand it well, and they don’t understand it. It’s easy: the boat is arriving, the boat is arriving, ‘don’t arrive, stop the boat.
“For someone who has been watching the headlines for three years and thinking, ‘This is totally wrong,’ what does it mean that a plane is taking off for Rwanda?”
But if the policy can reduce the number of people crossing the Strait for two years in a row, it could be effective.
This potential is borne out in a JL Partners poll conducted this week, which found the Conservatives were slightly more trusted than Labor to block boats (29% vs. 25%).
“There’s a group of voters out there who are furious about inflation. There’s not much you can do to convince them that you’re helping them with the cost of living. The ship has sailed,” Lubbock said.
“But the only lever you can pull is immigration. And if you can convince them that you are on their side and not Keir Starmer, they are more likely to vote for you in the general election. Masu.”
But he said policy delays meant Nigel Farage’s reforms could “outsmart” the Conservatives by taking a persistently hard line on immigration, adding: “It will be harder to reap the benefits of this policy. “It has become,” he said.
Meanwhile, Conservative pollster Lord Hayward said any aid plan for Rwanda must be “accompanied by other good news”.
“This is the second, third, fourth priority of voters in the polls, so it has no effect on its own.
“But if there is a message that the economy is improving, that we are acting together on things like immigration, then people may start to listen.
“This bill is likely to be passed on a day when inflation is also likely to fall significantly.
“So he’s going to get Philippe from both at the same time.
“If the public starts listening, the threat of reform will be somewhat alleviated. It’s not by itself, but it takes a combination of factors.”
This week, the government has continued to be made a fool of by refusing to confirm or deny claims that Airtanker, which is already affiliated with the Royal Air Force (RAF), is being shortlisted as the airline to provide deportation flights. There were signs.
Meanwhile, Rwandan President Paul Kagame visited and met Mr Sunaku on Flight 10 during an unofficial visit to the UK, and the pair were “looking forward to flying to Rwanda in the spring,” Downing Street said. reported.
However, Labor has questioned Mr Kagame’s involvement in the deportation plan, as he has not yet signed the UK-Rwanda treaty. The Convention is as important as the bill, which is an important law in realizing the operation of air flights.
Sources close to Rwanda’s government said in January that there was a “limit” to how the policy dispute could “prolong”, but Kagame was simply busy preparing for and participating in Rwanda commemorations this week. It is claimed that. 30th anniversary of the country’s genocide, which he helped end.
The signing of the treaty was also not a topic of conversation between Kagame and No. 10, even though it had been effectively on the table since March 22, when Rwanda’s Senate passed legislation ratifying the agreement. Ministers are understood to be relaxed about the signing.
But a Labor Party spokesperson said: I: “This is surprising. We must absolutely respect Rwanda’s period of mourning, but the president did not find the time to formalize this treaty in the days before this period began. The idea is incredible.
“It suggests they may not be as keen on this plan as the government suggests.
“Despite the government injecting more than £400 million of taxpayers’ money into Rwanda, it suggests they may not be as enthusiastic as the government suggests.”
A source close to Home Secretary James Cleverley said: “Any suggestion that the Rwandan government is not ready to operationalize this partnership at the same time as Royal Assent, or soon thereafter, is always likely to delay and thwart plans. “It comes from a voice that seeks to cause damage.” They become increasingly desperate to do so because they worry whether it will work or not. ”
Lord Hayward warned Mr Sunaku could be harmed if plans were delayed due to issues within Rwanda rather than the courts.
“If the government is seen to be stagnant just because of Rwanda’s problems, it will reflect back on the government.
“If the government appears to stall due to judicial decisions or ECHR intervention, it will not move the polls dramatically, but it will generally be in the government’s favor, even if it is just a mood.”