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As the nation continues to wait for the general election signal, politicians are rehearsing for England’s local elections on May 2nd.
During the two-week Easter break, which ends this weekend, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer campaigned heavily to strengthen their positions.
Hundreds of councilors across England are up for re-election, with all high-profile mayors including London’s Sadiq Khan, Greater Manchester’s Andy Burnham and West Midlands’ Andy Street.
This week Lord Keir’s focus shifted to the Blackpool South by-election. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of disgraced Conservative MP Scott Benton, who was arrested for offering to break parliamentary lobbying rules in exchange for jobs in the gambling industry.
“There is no doubt that Blackpool is the brightest local election campaign,” said a Labor source. The Conservatives won the seat in 2019 with a majority of 3,690 seats, after 22 years of Labor dominance in the region. This means that this is exactly the kind of constituency that Starmer’s party should easily win in order to stay on track for a majority in the House of Commons. In the general election.
Last year, Labor won five Tory seats in by-elections, overturning majorities in areas where it was well down the front-runner list.
“There is a possibility that it will be a distraction, but overall it is a good thing in terms of the election campaign going well,” said a senior party official. “The problem is that by overturning such large majorities in the past, we have set the bar pretty high.”
Another added: “The by-election is a great exercise in our digital activity and shows what kind of messages are actually resonating with people.”
In Blackpool – Where I Local Labor activists who accompanied Mr Starmer on the campaign trail this week said there was little sign that other parties would step up preparations for a by-election. This is despite Reform UK claiming it is targeting a strong performance in the constituency as evidence that the rise of right-wing groups in national polls can be reflected in real-world election results.
The Conservative Party also appears to have all but given up seats, symbolizing the difficulty of the Level Up project. One Conservative MP said the latter was unfinished business: “One of the promises of Brexit was to level up. There is a real sense that as things stand, many towns have been allowed to fall into disrepair.” Ta.
The various mayoral campaigns will pose a bigger challenge for Labor. If the party can defeat Tory Ben Houchen in Mayers Street and Tees Valley, he claims it will erase Boris Johnson’s legacy of Tory victories in areas previously at odds with the Tories. You can do it. However, one Labor Party official warned, “The two mayoral elections are going to be very tough.”
Labor activists on the ground in the West Midlands said one of their biggest challenges was encouraging their supporters to go to the polls. “The big issue for us is turnout and getting voters out,” the official said. “If this had been held on the same day as the general election, it would have been a different story.”
Labor wants to take full advantage of the Conservatives’ general unpopularity nationally, rather than making the race a personal battle between Street and his little-known challenger Richard Walker. thinking.
There is little doubt that Andy Burnham will be re-elected, with opinion polls suggesting Sadiq Khan should seek a third term in the capital. A poll released on Friday showed the incumbent has an approval rating of 50%, with his Conservative rival Susan Hall far behind on 26%. %, and no other party has more than 10%.
However, those around Khan remain extremely nervous about his prospects. Privately, they say there is a real possibility that switching to a first-past-the-post voting system could hurt Labour’s chances.
Previously, the contest was contested in two rounds, one on one, and there was no problem even if left-wing voters were divided. Some labor activist voters have reported saying they will support the party in the general election but plan to vote for Hall to oust the mayor.
Leaders are also frustrated that the campaign has been dominated by deputy leader Angela Reiner’s persistent questioning over her tax issues. A pro-Conservative newspaper has accused her of dodging taxes with the sale of the former Parliament House shortly before she entered parliament, and on Friday Greater Manchester Police said she had breached election laws by giving a false address. He confirmed that he would be investigated for the charges.
Starmer’s aides are confident the story will eventually die down, but Starmer himself gave a snappy response when asked about it by local media in Blackpool. They believe the public will sympathize with Ms. Reiner, who, in the words of one supporter, has had a “pretty complicated” personal life since becoming pregnant at 16.
For the Conservatives, the priority on May 2 will be to ensure that Mr Sunak does not face whispers of another leadership challenge or even a formal coup attempt, as some ministers fear. It’s about limiting losses. A win in at least one of the Tees Valley and West Midlands would help with this and limit the loss of party-wide MPs to around 200-300 out of a total of 1,000 up for re-election. The chancellor’s spirits will also be boosted if the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms on Wednesday that inflation is still falling.
“Everyone I talk to thinks it’s sheer madness to challenge the leadership,” one minister claimed. “Only about five people really think we need new leadership before the election. That would be a reminder to voters that they don’t like us.”
But the minister admitted he was nervous about the Conservative Party’s overall position, saying: I still think that will happen, but not until the general election campaign actually begins. And it will be extremely difficult for them to close the gap enough for us to win. ”
They added: “We haven’t done enough to address the vision question of why you would actually vote Conservative. Because people don’t vote based on the past, they vote based on the future. Because I vote.”
Outside Westminster, some Tory activists are warning that things are not going well.
Ground. One volunteer said: I: “There is a huge gap between local bodies and CCHQ. Local bodies are sidelined as CCHQ claims to know their constituencies better than local people.” .”
Growing discontent on the right wing of the party is not helping, activists said. “Those in the party who are complaining about the lack of real ‘conservative’ candidates are laughably selfish. ‘Conservative’ candidates are laughably bad. From resume to interview. They seem to be aiming for another Boris. ”
The ultimate wild card as the general election approaches will be Donald Trump’s intervention. People familiar with the former US president say there is a good chance he will be tempted to re-engage with British politics by supporting his friend Nigel Farage and Britain’s reforms.
One Cabinet member argued, “If Mr. Trump interferes with the election, it will cause great damage to reform.” “Even reform-minded voters hate Trump. That would have a huge backfire.”