- Both Biden and Trump see Georgia as a highly coveted electoral prize in the 2024 election.
- In 2020, Biden narrowly won the battleground state after years of Republican dominance at the presidential level.
- But Republicans are aiming to flip the state this year. And opinion polls predict another close race.
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Georgia has been reliably Republican at the presidential level in 2020, making President Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia perhaps one of the most satisfying election night victories.
Biden won by 11,779 votes out of nearly 5 million cast, boosted by a solid performance in the Atlanta metropolitan area, high turnout among black voters and young people across the state, and two U.S. Senate races that boosted Democratic enthusiasm. We won Georgia.
After years of Republican dominance at the federal level, the state currently has two Democratic senators, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
But Republicans also won every non-federal, statewide office in 2022, including Gov. Brian Kemp’s victory over his 2018 opponent, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams. is also included. And Republicans maintained control of the Georgia Legislature.
As such, Georgia remains a competitive battleground state, with both Biden and former President Donald Trump hoping to win the state’s 16 electoral votes.
With less than seven months until the election, what will happen to the Georgia race?
Survey suggests close race
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted in the battleground state of Georgia in March showed Trump leading the way. A narrow 1-point lead over Biden (44%-43%) Direct competition between registered voters.
Among the seven battleground states in the two-party contest, including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Georgia narrowly favored Trump.
Other recent studies (including those below) CBS News and maristshowed Trump leading by 3 and 4 points, respectively.
Preserving democracy is the top issue among Georgians heading into November, according to the Marist Georgia Poll. 25% of respondents cited this issue as their top issue, giving Biden a one-point advantage over Trump in terms of who would best address the issue.
Immigration and inflation were the second and third most important issues for registered voters. Mr. Trump had the upper hand on these matters.
Metro Atlanta is an electoral superpower
In 2020, Biden’s statewide victory was driven by Fulton County, centered around Atlanta, and the populous suburbs surrounding the capital. Some of these jurisdictions, including Cobb and Gwinnett counties, were once reliably Republican, but have swung heavily toward Democrats at the federal level. Neighboring Clayton, DeKalb and Henry counties also strongly supported Biden.
These changes in voting have given Democrats a wide opening in states that in 2012 were seen as largely out of reach for then-President Barack Obama during his re-election campaign.
In 2020, Mr. Biden easily defeated Mr. Trump in Fulton County (73% to 26%), receiving about 243,000 votes in that county alone, more than then-President Trump in much of the state’s suburban and rural areas. It was a big help in countering the fact that he was doing well. region.
Mobilizing voters in the state’s major population centers will be essential for Biden this year, especially given his early struggles in mobilizing many young and minority voters.
Will the Republican Party unite?
Trump easily defeated his former opponent, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, in last month’s Georgia Republican presidential primary.
In the primary, Trump received more than 497,000 votes to Haley’s approximately 78,000 votes. However, even though Haley withdrew from the race a week ago, she had received about 20,000 votes on election day.
Most of Haley’s voters were from the Atlanta metropolitan area, primarily in the suburbs where Trump was stumbled by Biden in 2020.
And many of these voters are likely to have lost the state to Trump in an election that resulted in the then-president pressuring Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn Biden’s victory in Georgia. I wasn’t thrilled that I objected to it.
Kemp and Raffensperger remain the most high-profile Republicans in state government despite their refusal to support Trump and the former president’s failed attempt to remove them from office in 2022. He is a member of the Diet.
Georgia’s 2024 results will be a major test of the Republican Party’s staying power during the Trump administration, making it a true purple state.