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Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel has raised concerns that the Middle East may soon descend into a wider war.
Iran’s decision to fire 300 drones and missiles at its longtime enemy has raised questions about whether major powers could be drawn into World War III.
For now, world leaders and international organizations are urging restraint and seem less interested in a conflict that could spiral out of control.
But experts expect Israel to retaliate. President Benjamin Netanyahu has already convened his war cabinet to discuss next steps.
The country’s Channel 12 television station quoted an unnamed Israeli official as saying it was Iran’s first direct attack on the country and that there would be a “serious response” to the air attack.
So what will Israel do next? How will other countries react if violence escalates? I We considered possible future scenarios.
limited retaliatory attack
In response, Israel may opt for limited and targeted attacks. Defense experts said the most likely target would be the base where Iran launched the attack.
Jonathan Panikov, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said Israel “will almost certainly respond” with an attack of its own.
However, US experts wrote on the think tank’s website. He said he expected the response to be “specific and restrained and not lead to any further significant response from Iran.”
The severity of Israel’s possible retaliation will depend on the scale of the suffering. Iran appears to have prevented major damage by intercepting nearly all of the 300 drones and missiles it launched late Saturday.
Minor damage occurred to the Israeli Air Force base. Medics reportedly said a seven-year-old girl was seriously injured in the country’s south, apparently from a missile attack.
Israel’s defense minister said 99% of the drones and missiles were shot down. However, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that Iran could still launch further attacks. “This campaign is not over yet.”
broader retaliatory attacks
Israel could decide to go further and bomb widespread Iranian military bases, locations used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and even government buildings.
Some believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may choose to attack his enemy’s energy and nuclear infrastructure. If Israel inflicts heavy casualties in any attack, it may be difficult to avoid an escalating cycle of violence.
Massoud Mostajavi, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Atlantic Council think tank, warns that Israel is now operating under a “wartime mindset” following the October 7 attack by Hamas from Gaza. did.
The experts wrote that they believe some in Israel “could retaliate in kind on Iranian territory by targeting important military, energy, and nuclear facilities.” He added: “If this reasoning prevails, catastrophic war will become almost inevitable.”
A major war breaks out in the Middle East
If Iran and Israel engage in further mutual attacks, it may be difficult to prevent other actors in the region from becoming drawn into a broader war.
The Iranian government has typically used proxy groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis to target Israel and its allies. If either extremist group joins the fighting, it could be difficult to stop the escalation.
The US and UK are already involved to some extent. Intelligence officials told Reuters that U.S. warplanes helped shoot down some of the Iranian drones. Royal Air Force fighter jets have also shot down a number of attack drones, Chancellor Rishi Sunak confirmed on Sunday.
Jordan also sent a jet to shoot down an Iranian drone over its airspace, a security official told Reuters. If confirmed, it could increase tensions with regional neighbor Iran.
Saudi Arabia is also in a difficult position. The region’s Sunni forces, which blame Israel for the bombing of Gaza, have long-standing rivalries with mainly Shiite Iran and have been in their own conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen since 2015. .
Mostajavi warned that such players would be “more likely to be targeted and end up in a huge firestorm in the region than to shoot down a few drones.”
In the worst-case scenario, Iran’s allies Syria and Iraq would also be drawn into a broader conflict.
US and other countries help draw lines in conflict
World powers could help prevent broader conflict. The United Nations, the United States, Britain, and other European leaders want to avoid war. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and others have warned Israel and Iran against escalation. China and Russia also joined in calling for restraint.
There is also reason to believe that Iran is not planning further attacks. Attacking only a small number of targets inside Israel may be a welcome outcome for Israel as it seeks to send a message to Tel Aviv.
Iran had vowed revenge ever since April 1, when it carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. Israel is said to be responsible, but Israel does not accept this.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations warned that “If the Israeli regime makes another mistake, Iran’s response will be even harsher.” However, the Tehran mission also said that Tehran also now “considers the issue resolved.”
Pressure from the U.S. government could help limit Israel’s response.of Axios The website quoted a senior White House official as saying that President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Netanyahu that the United States would oppose any counterattack.
Regarding the drone and missile intercepts, Biden is said to have told Israeli leaders: Seize victory. ”
With a strong desire to avoid a broader war, Iran and Israel may decide to draw the line at direct hostility for the time being. But tensions remain high for the foreseeable future, and once violence erupts, it is far from easy to stop it.
Starmer and Sunak struggle to respond to Israeli and Iranian escalation
Anne McElvoy
The rivalry between Iran and Israel is a cauldron that, if it boils over, will create a serious crisis throughout the Middle East. This weekend, events that mirror the tinder effect of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war reached that stage. Iran’s massive drone and missile attacks against Israel are aimed at demonstrating that Iran is immune to firepower and Western influence.
The issues facing the region and testing the Western Allies are already finding it difficult to maintain a united front over the Gaza war, but is this now an ‘honour-satisfied’ scenario or is it dangerous? Is this the first move in a chain reaction and escalation? The situation spirals towards all-out war, involving other players in the Middle East.
In the first scenario, Tehran could claim that it had justly retaliated against the April 1 attack on Damascus, and that Israel’s fervent leader Benjamin Netanyahu would have been similarly urged by the US to refrain from his next actions. There is a possibility that you will be persuaded.
But he has long warned that the West is turning a blind eye to Iran’s pattern of using proxy forces, including Hezbollah, Houthi militias and ultimately Hamas, to undermine Israel’s security. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, it seems just as likely that the military would make this claim. A response from Israel is required. It will test allies, including Britain, in a conflict that is far more likely to not only intersect with the ongoing war in Gaza but also draw in other major geopolitical actors, from the US to Russia. big.
Although the theater of this war is geographically distant from the UK, our political leaders have expressed their support for Israeli democracy under threat from Iran and Hamas, and their fear of the humanitarian impact of a Gaza counteroffensive. It is difficult to coordinate policies between the two countries. It has proven to be a difficult line to tread, and the risks of missing it are so great that an Iranian attack would make it even more unstable.
There will be agreement between Labor and the Conservatives on claims of “deep concern” and calls for calm when the House of Commons meets in an emergency session on Monday. But beneath that unity lies uncertainty and tension about what should happen next.
Rishi Sunak’s statement today said a direct attack on Israel by the Iranian government would be “reckless”, and the G7 meeting called for as many major military leaders as possible to avoid creating a hole in the West. – He said the meeting would be held quickly to bring the economic powers into a joint position. A clear response to the fighting in Gaza is being undermined.
The UK has also sent Royal Air Force jets over Iraq and Syria to intercept drone attacks as part of its role in the coalition to defeat the ISIS terrorist organization and its promoters, thanks to Operation Shader missions in the region. It is being deployed. It has now shifted its role to deter drone attacks from Iran that pass within its purview. While this isn’t explicitly included in Operation Shader’s task list, it’s a reminder that once a conflict begins, it’s very difficult to draw clear lines of engagement.
How quickly can the government achieve support for Israel (which now needs to be clearly reiterated by Labor and the Conservatives), a larger and faster appeal for humanitarian aid, and a durable ceasefire in Gaza? I’m trying to find a balance. In such problems, failure is more likely than success. Prime Minister Cameron has also been one of the most active foreign ministers in trying to deter Iranian aggression, conducting intensive diplomacy in the region and with Lebanon and Qatar as conduits to Tehran. Although it has not paid off, this is a worrying sign that Iranian hardliners have rather won the battle for influence.
Of course, Britain is not alone in worrying about how to deal with a resurgent and aggressive Iran. The issue is likely to be deeply divisive in the United States, and the Biden administration has largely glossed over the issue. Donald Trump will try to define himself as ready to engage in “appeasement” on this issue and will argue that the Biden restraint doctrine is not working. In any case, Iran is back in the fray over security and foreign policy.
As a perhaps benign outcome, the Iranian government’s real position is that this is essentially a show of force in a retaliatory attack targeting Iranian operatives, which can now be concluded. Damage appears to have been minimal as Israel’s Iron Dome defenses worked. But the overall picture is not so reassuring. A red line has been crossed in the direct nature of this attack, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is both a leader under electoral pressure and a strongman in power for long periods thanks to his extraordinary survival instincts, and he does not hesitate at any time. Tend. he was cornered. The attack may also have been in his favor, forcing the United States to focus on the Iranian threat rather than bickering over tactics in Gaza.
However, against the backdrop of a wide range of conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, the US government is concerned that soaring oil prices like those seen in the 1970s will further escalate economic and military tensions, and has urged the Netanyahu administration to I would advise you to stay calm during this period. Intensifying conflict. The cost of war often exceeds the reasons for starting it. Now is the time for two stalwart adversaries to walk away from that prospect. While that is desperately desired, it is far from a sure bet.