- Analysts say Iran’s airstrikes against Israel mirror Russian tactics in Ukraine.
- However, Iran reportedly underestimated its ability to protect Israel from such attacks.
- Other analysts disagreed, saying Iran had been using similar tactics long before Russia’s full-scale invasion.
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Some military analysts are comparing Iran’s attempt to shell Israel over the weekend to Russian tactics in Ukraine.
On Saturday, Iran launched a major attack on Israel, launching more than 300 drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. According to the Israel Defense Forces99% intercepted before reaching the target.
“This attack package has been used repeatedly by Russia to great effect against Ukraine,” said defense experts Brian Carter and Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. It’s modeled after something.” I have written.
The IDF estimates that 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles were used in the attack.
“It is very likely that the drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles and were expecting to arrive at Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones,” the analysts said. Ta.
They said the slow drones and cruise missiles were intended to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and allow ballistic missiles, which are more difficult to target, to break through. “We have taken this approach repeatedly,” he added.
However, “the Iranians underestimated Israel’s significant advantage in defending against such an attack compared to Ukraine,” they said.
Unlike Ukraine, other countries also helped remove some missiles and drones. The United States and Britain both said they helped avert the attack.
However, not everyone agrees that Iran was copying Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Fabian Hintz, a defense researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: I wrote to X Long before Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran reportedly launched a combined missile attack aimed at overwhelming its air defenses.
He pointed to Iran’s attacks on two major Saudi oil refineries in 2019, which also reportedly used drones combined with cruise missiles.
U.S. officials also estimate that about half of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran in recent attacks have failed. CBS reported.
The exact intentions of the weekend attack are also still being debated, with Hintz echoing Carter and Kagan’s assessment that “the attack was designed to fail and it was designed to succeed.” I agree.
Iran intended “significant damage below the threshold that would provoke a major Israeli response,” they wrote.
Several Analyst Iran has suggested it planned the weekend attack as a warning rather than a credible attack.
“This attack was aimed at re-establishing deterrence on the Iranian side,” said Roger Shanahan, a research fellow at the Australian think tank Lowy Institute. told ABC News Australia.
“Iran also understands that inviting direct intervention into Iranian territory from other countries is not in anyone’s best interests, and certainly not in Iran’s own interests, so this response is a coordinated one. ”.
Shanahan added that Israel had advance warning of the attack, which allowed it to mount a stronger defense.
The Iranian military said the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s attack on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, in early April.