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Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their chances of finding a new job if they lose their current one.
Leading the nation in the New York Fed’s Consumer Expectations Survey investigation Surveying approximately 1,300 U.S. households, respondents are asked to estimate the likelihood that they would be able to find an acceptable new job within the next three months if they lost their job today.
As of the recently released April data, the average probability was 50.9%. This means that, on average, respondents believed their chances of success were essentially a coin flip. This was the lowest level since April 2021. However, excluding the numbers in 2020 and early 2021, when job search expectations plummeted due to the pandemic, this was the last time the numbers were this low since November 2014.
Data from the New York Fed survey reveals similar trends across all levels of education, income, and region in the United States. Americans are less confident in their ability to find a new job than they were in years before the pandemic. The only group with near-record optimism is workers 60 and older, whose average probability was 55.4% in April. Older workers are lower The unemployment rate is higher than the national average.
This pessimism about the job market is at odds with how Americans feel about the economy and the grim economic data that suggests things are going fairly well, despite some evidence of a slowdown in the job market. This is another example showing that there is a discrepancy. However, some experts argue that there are good reasons for people to take the economic downturn, due in part to inflation and high interest rates. In any case, how Americans feel about economic issues could be a key factor in this fall’s presidential election.
Why are Americans worried about the job market?
In some ways, Americans’ growing pessimism about the job market is perplexing.
In November 2014, the average probability of employment for New York Fed respondents was 50.1%, similar to the 50.9% figure in April of this year, but the unemployment rate 5.8%. As of April this year, it was 3.9%.
In November 2014, 4.8 million Job postings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of his latest March data, there were about 8.5 million job openings.
Additionally, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median length of unemployment for Americans is consistent with pre-pandemic levels. And even though the number of unemployed people increased slightly from March to April. Drop out of the labor force, There was no noticeable increase.
Americans may be more pessimistic about the job market than some economic data suggests, but it’s perhaps not too surprising that American confidence has trended slightly lower in recent months. .
That’s because the job market is more difficult than it was a few years ago, when mass resignations were at their peak.
According to a survey by the New York Fed, the average probability of Americans getting a job in May 2022 is 58.2%, the highest in two years, while the number of job openings in the United States is about 11.5 million, two of the highest on record. That number wasn’t even close. months ago. The number of job openings as of March 2024 has decreased by approximately 3 million compared to May 2022.
Fewer job openings can increase competition among applicants. In a report published in May, LinkedIn said: 14% increase Number of applications by open role on the platform from November 2023 to March 2024.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is rising slightly, although it is still low compared to historical levels.
The unemployment rate as of May 2022 is 3.6%, lower than the 3.9% recorded in April this year, and far from the 3.4% it reached twice in 2023. The US unemployment rate has not fallen below 3.4% since 2022. 1950s.
Not only has the unemployment rate increased slightly, but some Americans believe they are at increased risk of losing their jobs.
In addition to surveying people about their job search expectations, the New York Fed ask Ask them to estimate how likely they think they are to lose their job in the next 12 months. As of April, the average probability of respondents was 15.1%. Although this was lower than March’s 15.7%, it was the second highest probability since October 2020.
Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index, a frequently cited measure of economic performance, fell by about 13% in May. This is the lowest level in about six months since April. In a statement accompanying the release, Director of Consumer Research Joan Hsu said: Said Consumers expect the unemployment rate to move in an “unfavorable direction over the next year,” it said.
Indeed, some experts predict that the unemployment rate will rise; rise As for next year, most people predict that moderate increase.
Difficulties finding remote work and well-paying jobs may be contributing to the pessimism.
The job market can be especially frustrating for Americans looking for remote work, as these roles are difficult to land.
The share of US remote jobs on LinkedIn is over 20 LinkedIn said that despite the decline, nearly half of its roles are now remote Of all applications in December.
Moreover, no one fits perfectly into each position in the United States. 8.5 million Job Information. Therefore, some Americans in certain industries may be facing a less-than-abundant job market.
For example, there is some evidence that the job market for high-paying jobs has cooled over the past year. The industries that added the most jobs in April generally had low wages, including transportation, warehousing, and retail.
Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told Business Insider earlier this month after April labor market statistics were released by the government agency. Bureau of Labor Statistics It’s no longer a “hot labor market” or a “candidate market in every industry where workers can get whatever they want.”
Finally, many Americans may think the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ job numbers are overstated. For example, some job seekers report encountering “ghost jobs,” or listings on job platforms where companies are no longer actively hiring.
Fortunately for Americans, recent strong labor force data suggests that the vast majority of people who want a job already have a job.
But if layoffs start to increase and more people are looking for work, the job search could become even more difficult than last time.
Are you having trouble finding a job? Want to share your story? If so, please contact the reporters below. jzikula@businessinsider.com and mhoff@businessinsider.com.