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Labour is leading by more than 20 points in the polls and looks set to win a huge majority, but questions are already beginning to arise about how the party will deal with the realities of government.
Party insiders insist nothing is being taken for granted and that the party needs a major breakthrough to reverse its dismal performance in 2019.
Still, attention is already shifting to how party leader Sir Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will manage the influx of eager new MPs who want to deliver the “change” the party advocates under an unattainably draconian public spending regime.
The shadow exchequer has agreed to Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal rules to bring down debt as a proportion of national income by the end of the next parliament, but this means she will have to either raise taxes or introduce deep cuts to public services other than the NHS, education and defence.
Reeves is clear about the need for “iron discipline”, which he says must underpin all government action and without it change cannot be achieved and “ordinary workers” may suffer.
“When you mess with public finances, you put family finances at risk.” Reeves explained last yearSo far, that discipline has been maintained with Starmer’s full backing, but now there are warnings about the pressure the party could face if it comes into contact with an ambitious new Labour leader.
There are already whispers within Westminster that Mr Reeves may have already succumbed to “Treasury-brained” orthodoxy and that hopes of delivering the changes Labour has promised may soon be dashed as purse strings are tightened and spending cuts are implemented.
It has also been suggested that her financial prudence could pose serious headaches for Starmer’s leadership in managing new rank-and-file MPs in the first term of a new Labour government.
One former Treasury civil servant who worked under both Labour and Conservative ministers argued the thinking adopted by Ms Reeves could quickly run into problems: “She definitely has a Treasury brain,” they said. I.
“She was educated at the Bank of England and then HBOS, so her formative experiences in finance were very orthodox – sound currency, pro-business, competition – but what is totally unappreciated is that whatever she and Keir Starmer think, they cannot ignore backbenchers.”
They added: “If you spent your pre-MP career at Save the Children, know it’s not a fast track to a ministerial position and have your eye on at least protecting your seat, are you really going to spend years lobbying to see no more funding allocated to alleviating child poverty? You’re a damn bastard.”
One of the challenges facing Starmer’s top team will be managing the party, particularly if Labour wins a landslide victory of more than 100 seats, as some opinion polls suggest is possible.
Keeping so many MPs happy with a limited number of jobs can pose unique challenges, as Tony Blair experienced in 1997 when he won a 179-seat majority.
“Whoever the prime minister is, whoever the majority is, they have to show their strength on this,” the source added. “It may be just a little bit, but LOTO [leader of the Opposition] “If you think you can maintain fiscal prudence throughout your first term in office, you’re crazy. Something is going to have to give up, and hopefully it’s funded by economic growth.”
When Labour MPs submitted policy proposals for the party’s election manifesto in case a general election is called in May, they were told by the leadership that some of the policies would not be feasible, at least in the short term.
As one veteran Labour MP said: I“Many of us have our own projects that we would like to see come to fruition, and the answer we get back is that we will do it when funding allows. But the question is, when?”
One example is the cap on child benefit payments, which Sir Keir has adamantly ruled out abolishing, despite the two-child limit being criticised even by right-wing MP Suella Braverman.
Universal free school meals is also a popular policy within the Labour party but has so far been rejected by Reeves and her shadow finance team as too costly in the current climate.
Asked in his first broadcast interview of the election campaign on Friday whether he would remove the cap on child benefit, Sir Keir replied as per script: “Of course, in an ideal world, but at the moment we don’t have the money to do it.”
Further evidence of Labour’s caution emerged this week when it was revealed that Sue Gray, Chancellor Sir Keir’s chief of staff, had drawn up a “shit list” of crises the party might inherit, including bankrupt local authorities, struggling universities, public sector pay pressures, the potential collapse of Thames Water and a prison system that is reaching its limits.
The document leak FT This appears to be an attempt to show voters the mess Labour will inherit, but also to remind its own candidates that they will not have the funds to fix everything from day one.
Rachel Reeves has been contacted for comment.