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Much has been written about Hezbollah’s vast surface-to-surface missile and rocket arsenal and the devastating damage it can inflict on Israel, but a recent incident has thrust the spotlight back on its lesser known air defenses.
Footage has emerged that appears to show the remains of an Iranian-made Sayyid-2 surface-to-air missile after the Israeli Air Force targeted a Hezbollah site south of the Lebanese city of Sidon. The Israeli military said the targeted Hezbollah site “poses a threat to Israeli aircraft.”
Israeli media report The footage “appears to be the first public evidence that Hezbollah has such missiles,” as previously claimed. Hezbollah has been trading retaliatory strikes with Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack, but the air defenses suggest the Israeli air force faces a greater threat over southern Lebanon than over Gaza.
The Sayyyad-2 is a medium-range surface-to-air missile developed through extensive reverse engineering of the American RIM-66 standard missile and SM-1, which Iran acquired before the 1979 revolution. The Sayyyad-2 has a shorter range than its successor. The most advanced Sayyyad-4B, developed by Iran for the Baval-373 air defense system, has an estimated range of 186 miles.
In October, a Hezbollah-appointed guide showed visiting journalists some of the group’s firepower, suggesting it had long-range air defense weapons such as the Russian S-300. “You think we don’t have the S-300?” He said“If Iran has the S-300, Hezbollah will definitely get the S-300.”
It is unclear whether Iran has attempted to transfer the domestically developed Bavar-373, the S-300’s equivalent, along with the Sayyad 4/4B missiles to Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities are very opaque,” Nicholas Branford, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the 2011 book “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s 30-Year Struggle Against Israel,” told Business Insider. “A lot more is known about the air defense systems in their arsenal because Hezbollah rarely uses them.”
“But it’s safe to assume that if Iran has or can acquire an air defense system that meets Hezbollah’s needs, Hezbollah would probably get it,” Branford said.
The Hezbollah expert also noted that possessing missiles such as the Sayyad-2 “certainly increases the threat level” to Israeli aircraft compared to shoulder-fired missiles, and that Israel has “always maintained” that Hezbollah’s acquisition of advanced air defense systems “will never be tolerated.”
Since 2013, Israel has been conducting airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian arms shipments to Lebanon in an effort to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring advanced systems. These airstrikes have intensified since Hamas’ October 7 attacks, making it more difficult than ever for Iran to transport weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. During these airstrikes, Israeli jets have evaded and at times destroyed Syrian Russian-made short- and medium-range Tor and Pantsir air defense systems.
The discovery of the Sayyad 2 suggests that Iran has transferred at least some of its anti-aircraft missiles to its most valued regional proxies.
“There have been previous reports that Hezbollah possesses Sayyad 2 anti-aircraft missiles, but Friday’s Israeli strikes solidify that claim,” Freddy Qualey, global security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at risk intelligence firm RANE, told BI. “Hezbollah is suspected of using the Sayyad 2 to shoot down some of Israel’s most advanced Hermes 900 drones over Lebanon.”
“Hezbollah has boasted about its improved air defense capabilities in recent years, but the discovery that it has the Sayyad-2 shows just how advanced an anti-aircraft system they have acquired,” Qualy said.
An Israeli F-35 stealth fighter jet flew over the border with southern Lebanon on March 12, 2024.
Jara Murray/Getty Images
Israel has experience destroying Lebanon’s formidable air defenses: During its 1982 invasion of the country, Israel launched a coordinated, large-scale operation to suppress enemy air defenses against Syria’s Soviet-made surface-to-air missile batteries in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.
Operation Mole Cricket 19 saw the destruction of Syrian missiles and Israel’s new F-15 and F-16 fighter jets engaging in aerial combat with the Syrian Air Force. 82 Syrian Airlines aircraft Without losing a single soldier.
While Hezbollah is unlikely to deploy such a large-scale anti-aircraft missile network, its air defenses could still affect Israeli air operations over Lebanon.
“Generally speaking, this is unlikely to deter the Israeli air force from operating over Lebanon, but given Hezbollah’s changing tactics and more advanced capabilities, such as higher altitude fighter jets and the use of stealthy fighters such as the F-35, Israel is likely to become more cautious,” Qualy said.
“The Israeli Air Force is far more advanced and can circumvent these air defenses and maintain overwhelming air superiority, but Israeli drones and helicopters operating over Lebanon could be put at greater risk, especially if the IDF expands its operations in Lebanon.”
Quayle does not believe Iran will transfer strategic systems such as the Bavar 373 to Lebanon.
“It is highly likely that Iran can, and has, transferred medium and long-range defense systems to Hezbollah,” Qualy said. “Large air defense systems such as the Bavar 373 are difficult to transfer given their size, but Lebanon is small and Hezbollah would not be able to adequately deploy them there.”
RANE analysts believe that if Iran were to deploy the Bavar 373 to the region, it would likely send it to a place like Syria, but they estimate this is unlikely at this point.
“The Sayyad 2 discovery, given the likely limited number of defense systems Hezbollah possesses, likely suggests that Iran could transfer additional similar advanced defense systems that Hezbollah could use in stages if the conflict escalates or becomes a larger-scale war,” Qualy said.