Would You like a feature Interview?
All Interviews are 100% FREE of Charge
Welcome to Election Confidential, a weekly newsletter that aims to do just that: I’m Marie Le Conte. Less than a week ago I was sitting poolside in Marrakech, looking at the various candidates for Goole and Pocklington, wondering if it was fun being here? Guess three answers.
We’ll bring you more serious stories, analysis, original reporting and, with any luck, some fun gossip. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can do so here.
In between, there is what I call a “vibe check”, which involves asking Westminster insiders about the week’s events – a summary that is deliberately made public, with anonymity guaranteed so they can be as honest as possible.
“Maybe a tired feeling is what’s giving me the vibe? – Already exhausted pollsters
That would be almost as amazing as eating fresh peaches while sipping a whiskey sour in the hot Moroccan sun—or so I tell myself, anyway.
“It looks like Labour’s psychodrama week. It’s the way it should be and they probably wouldn’t mind it happening sooner. Leave it to the Conservatives to find a way to cause yet another unnecessary collapse for the next five weeks.” – Fed-up lobby reporter
current situation
“Nothing has changed yet. That doesn’t mean nothing will or can change, but with each day that passes, change seems more elusive and the enormous challenges facing the Conservative Party only grow.”“ – Pollsters who actually took this question seriously
Subscribers to my conference newsletter may remember that I ended last year’s term by saying, in Theresa May’s immortal words, that nothing had changed. Rishi Sunak needed a big win, by-election or otherwise, and he missed it, while Keir Starmer aimed to stabilise his government, and he did.
Nearly eight months later, the situation was much the same when Mr Sunak announced the election last week.
If anything, things got a little worse for the blue team and a little better for the red team. Perhaps that’s why Suankh stood outside Downing Street in the rain, stunned the nation. Things were not good, but they probably won’t get any better.
The first few days of the campaign went largely as expected: the Conservatives stumbled repeatedly and Labour ran like a well-oiled machine. economist According to the column, voting day seemed like a punitive outrage waiting to happen.
Still, it’s a notoriously chaotic campaign and a number of issues have come to the fore this week, perhaps more so on Labour’s side. It’s unlikely to bring about any meaningful change, but it’s worth considering what it might mean for the future.
“I’m really pleased that the Conservative party is suddenly bursting with ideas. I don’t know if they’re the right ideas, but at least they’re trying. Tufton Swamp (a think tank based around Tufton Street in London) has loads of good ideas that the Conservative party could and should put forward!” – A somewhat harsh Conservative think tank
To the Conservative Party
So where do I start? Things aren’t going well for the Conservative Party at the moment. Sunak’s decision to call an election shocked everyone and infuriated Conservative MPs.
In some ways it was hard to feel sympathy for them at first – Conservative MPs have been like a giant sieve over the past few years, consistently leaking all sorts of little secrets to the press – and it was not entirely unreasonable for the Prime Minister to want to keep his cards close to home.
As time passed, and it began to become clear that Sunak and his team had no clear plan, their anger became more justified. It’s one thing for infantrymen to be kept in the dark until the last moment, but quite another to be sent into battle with almost no instructions.
“I’m racking my brains trying to figure out how useful my contacts book will be in five weeks’ time.” – One Conservative lobbyists not doing so well
Events since then have been largely uninstructive. There have already been some gaffes, which were to be expected, and the candidate selection process has been a mess, particularly reprehensible given that Labour had already chosen most of its parliamentary aspirants.
Another real, but currently underestimated, problem is that Rishi Sunak is now trying to be three people at once. From the moment he became chancellor he has been plagued by a contradiction between his image (a cheerful, liberal, centre-right technocrat) and his actual beliefs, which are much further to the right than they appear. The election campaign has added a third layer to this, forcing Sunak to transform himself into an OAP whisperer.
Given that pensioners are perhaps one of the few people who vote Conservative, this is not the worst idea in the world, but it clearly doesn’t sit well with him. As a result, the Prime Minister now comes across as rather dishonest, and this is simply not what voters want. Love As a politician: Yes, his MPs are still furious at him.
“It’s encouraging and positive. There’s very little love for the PM or Keir, but the anti-SNP atmosphere is palpable here.” – Scottish Conservative MPs see silver linings
Next is the Labour Party
It is fair to say that things have been going better for the Opposition than for the Government this week but, to the surprise of no one, the Left is now starting to self-destruct. In fairness, given that self-destruction is a favourite pastime of the Left, it is impressive that they have been able to take such a long break from self-destruction.
Fortunately for all concerned, the Labour Party is once again embroiled in factionalism following the chaotic return of Diane Abbott. The former shadow home secretary left the party but then returned and was allowed to run again. Probably not, but maybe she will be. At the time of writing, it is unclear what happened and what will happen next. It has been chaotic, but it didn’t need to be.
“I’m not entirely convinced that things seem to be going my way. I’m fully prepared for some disaster to happen, but a little voice keeps telling me that maybe this time it won’t actually happen. I guess it’s called hope.” – Scottish Labour organisers can’t believe their good fortune
In addition, the leader’s office has withdrawn several candidates from the party’s left, including Faiza Shaheen in Chingford, causing concern both within Corbyn’s camp and across the party.
Keir Starmer has run the party with a hard line since being elected in 2020, but he won the internal battle some time ago. It is interesting to see where Starmer intends to stop, especially since even Tony Blair thought Starmer could govern a church that had genuine widespread support.
Importantly, Labour frontbenchers made a series of splashy policy announcements this week, all of which were drowned out by internal party infighting – probably the last outcome anyone wanted.
At this stage, there is no situation in which Labour cannot win the general election, but that does not mean Starmer should feel he can do whatever he likes with the party. He must remember that everyone else on the left is happy to take on the left. As the Conservatives have shown, having a majority does not mean you can ignore your own seats.
“It’s been a week and the Ring doorbell is driving me crazy after five hours of knocking a day. I close my eyes and I can hear the chimes. I can’t get them out of my head every waking moment.” – England’s Labour MPs face a tough five weeks ahead
“The Conservative national campaign is struggling very hard at the moment and while it’s clear they’re excited to maintain their lead in the national polls, I worry that this has caused both activists and voters to let their guard down and underestimate the difficulty of this campaign and the urgency of having to deliver a hit to them over the next five weeks. The mood is… uneasy at the moment.” – Anxious Labour activist
Now, regarding this point…
Thank you for reading and I’ll see you next week. If you want me to spend some time with you in your constituency, if you have a story or a tale to share, or if you just want to chat in this newsletter, please send me an email at marie.s.leconte@gmail.com and don’t forget to sign up here.
good bye!