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For Republicans in Congress, former President Donald Trump continues to wield enormous power over their political futures.
Trump has effectively maintained a stranglehold on the party since 2016, shaping its ideological direction, controlling Republican lawmakers and cultivating a political base that has remained unwaveringly loyal for nearly a decade.
This dynamic has only intensified since Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to hide hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016.
But to the surprise of many, Trump’s conviction drew outrage from New York’s Republican caucus, including Reps. Marc Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito, who represent some of the most battleground districts in the country, concentrated in the suburbs of New York City, where the next House majority could be decided by a majority of moderates and independents.
Violent reaction
Molinaro is a first-term Republican who represents the 19th Congressional District, centered in the Catskills and Hudson Valley, which Biden won by nearly 5 points in 2020. He condemned the Manhattan ruling..
“Is this the way politics works today?” he said in a statement to X. “Instead of engaged debate, we use the judiciary and court system as a weapon to attack political opponents right before an election.”
D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective who flipped the Long Island-based 4th District in 2022, said this week that ‘The best revenge’ for Trump’s conviction He will win the general election in November.
“It is clear that Democrats are so afraid to fight President Trump fairly that they continue to weaponize the justice system to stop him,” the congressmen wrote.
In 2020, Biden won D’Esposito’s district, which is dominated by affluent, college-educated voters who have tended to lean Democratic in recent elections, by about 15 points.
Mike Lawler, who narrowly won the purple 17th District in upstate New York, said he didn’t think Trump should be convicted. “It undermines our electoral and judicial systems.” He also characterized Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, state Attorney General Letitia James and Gov. Kathy Hawkle as “extremely partisan New York Democrats.”
Long Island Republican Rep. Nick LaRota suggested Judge Hawkle should pardon Trump and “preemptively commute any punishment” he may face at his sentencing in July.
The House members’ sharp responses echo those of their Republican counterparts in more conservative state districts and go to the root of one of the GOP’s biggest challenges heading into November: wooing suburban voters around the GOP.
The suburban dilemma
meanwhile Biden is not that popular In New York state, where Trump currently has an approval rating of 39% in the latest Emerson College poll, just 7 points behind him in approval ratings in a state he won by 23 points in 2020, many voters have either stayed out of the race or indicated they intend to consider a third-party option such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But in clearly Democratic states like New York, Biden is likely to have some advantage ahead of the election.
Suburban voters on Long Island are leaning Republican in the 2022 midterm elections, a trend that could continue in 2024, especially given Trump’s support among many current and retired law enforcement officers, but lawmakers like LaLota and D’Esposito are running in districts where the former president remains a divisive figure.
In a presidential election year, reduced vote splitting makes it harder for many of the opposing party’s lesser candidates to win, and vulnerable Republicans will be tasked with defending their own records while explaining their stance on Trump — a tall order for voters who believe the former president committed crimes.
Nationally, suburban voters were already moving away from Trump before he was convicted, and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley continues to garner significant support from Republican voters even after she suspended her presidential campaign in March.
The decision by New York House Republicans to join President Trump’s fight against the hush-money lawsuit is a huge risk, but it also symbolizes how the Republican Party remains in the control of the former president.