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Nigel Farage ran for the MP for Clacton in the general election.
On Monday, Farage reversed his earlier suggestion that he would not stand, saying the “Conservative party has already lost the election” and that he was “trying to raise a voice against a Labour government that may otherwise spin out of control.”
He launched his campaign on Tuesday, urging voters in the Essex seaside town to make him their MP as a possible “huge thorn in the side of a Labour government. But what are his chances of actually winning?
Has Mr Farage ever approached any MPs?
The former UKIP leader has stood in the House of Commons seven times but was defeated each time, even in 2015 when UKIP achieved its highest record of 12.6% of the national vote.
The Reform UK leader was most recently defeated in the 2015 general election, finishing second to the Conservative candidate in South Thanet, Kent.
Farage has lost parliamentary elections by large margins in all five general elections and two by-elections he has stood in.
In a 1994 by-election they were defeated by the Liberal Democrats with just 1.7% of the vote, and three years later in the 1997 general election they lost Salisbury to the Conservatives with 5.7% of the vote.
In 2001, while he was still running for UKIP, Farage lost the vote to Charles Wardle, who ran as an independent after losing his Conservative leadership position.
In 2005 he received just 5% of the vote for UKIP in South Thanet, losing to Labour who won more than 40% of the vote.
In 2006 he lost his seat in Bromley and Chislehurst to the Conservatives, coming third behind the Liberal Democrats, and in the 2010 general election he lost his seat in Buckingham to John Bercow.
Farage’s highest percentage of the vote to date was 32.4% in the 2015 South Thanet election, when UKIP came second to the Conservatives.
Farage has never held a seat in the House of Commons, but was elected as an MEP for the South East of England by UKIP in 1990, a position he held until 2020.
Why did Farage choose Clacton?
Clacton was previously held by UKIP after former Conservative MP Douglas Carswell defected to the party, leading to a by-election which Carswell won in 2014. Carswell defended his seat against UKIP in the 2015 general election.
Farage, a veteran eurosceptic, was at the forefront of the 2016 campaign to leave the EU, with both the Reform Party and UKIP promoting Britain’s departure from the EU.
Importantly, over 70% of Clacton’s voters supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum, the fifth highest figure in the UK.
In 2017, Conservative candidate Giles Watling defeated Ms Carswell, who was running as an independent, by more than 15,000 votes.
By 2019, with no UKIP or Brexit Party candidates standing, Watling’s vote count had increased to 24,702 and he will re-contest the seat for the Conservatives in July.
“I’d be happy to give Nigel a tour of Clacton to see what it’s really like, but I’d hate to see the constituency become a victim of his vanity,” Mr Watling told the BBC.
The Reform Party has already selected a candidate to replace Mr Clacton, but Mr Farage said he had known for “months” that there was a “possibility” that he would be replaced.
The former UKIP and Brexit Party leader said he had changed his mind after spending time campaigning, adding that he did not want to disappoint his supporters.
Does he have a chance to win?
Before Parliament was dissolved, the Reform Party only had one seat, after Ashfield MP Lee Anderson left the Conservative Party in March.
According to an MRP poll published this week, Labour is currently expected to retake Ashfield, with the Conservatives and Reform Party set to compete for second place in July.
A YouGov poll put the Reform Party in second place in Clacton on 27%, ahead of the Conservatives on 42%, but crucially the poll was conducted before Mr Fullerage announced his candidacy.
A recent JL Partners poll found that: Suyeah He suggested that Mr Farage’s return could boost the Reform Party’s support across the UK by 6 percentage points.
Bookmaker William Hill has Farage as the favourite to win the Clacton seat, with odds of 1/3, 11/4 for the Conservatives and 8/1 for Labour.
2024 Election
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will return to the campaign trail, taking part in the first ever head-to-head leaders’ debate on ITV on Tuesday night. I‘s general election live blog is your go-to place for 2024 general election coverage.
The Conservatives have announced their proposals to reform gender law, but attention has been drawn to Nigel Farage’s shock move to run for parliament and become leader of Reform UK. Shortly after the announcement, the Conservatives revealed their proposals for a new immigration cap.
On immigration, Labour has said it is ready to accept asylum seekers from overseas. In London, former party leader Jeremy Corbyn, now running as an independent, is fighting to keep supporters behind Starmer.
Have a question for our politics experts? Email us at polsquestions@inews.co.uk or tweet us. translation: Jane Merrick or Hugo Gay may respond during the first live readers’ debate.