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A new poll has shown the Conservative Party’s support falling to its lowest point ever, putting the ruling party in a neck-and-neck battle with the surging Reform UK party.
BMG Research Survey I It is the latest piece of news to suggest Sir Keir Starmer is set to win a Blair-like landslide victory in the general election in two weeks’ time.
Rishi Sunak’s personal approval rating is at an all-time low, with just one in six voters saying he is doing a good job as Chancellor.
BMG’s Robert Struthers said “British politics is heading for a shock outcome” with the Conservatives set to lose the majority of their House of Commons seats after failing to win over wavering voters during the election campaign.
The poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, found that 42% of voters intend to support Labour on July 4, compared with 19% for the Conservatives and Reform Party each, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Greens on 6%.
Since last week, the Conservatives have fallen by 2 percentage points and the Reform Party has risen by 5 percentage points. Labour’s 23-point lead has widened from 20 points a week ago, suggesting that the leader is on track to win a supermajority in Parliament.
The BMG poll showed the reformists up 8 points. I Nigel Farage announced he would return as party leader.
“The UK appears to be on the brink of an election that could transform the political landscape in ways that would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago,” Struthers said.
“Sunak called the election in an attempt to narrow the gap with Labour by narrowing the reform vote and persuading ‘unsure’ Conservative voters that they should support his party.”
“In many ways, the exact opposite has happened. With two weeks to go until voting, opinion polls show the gap between the Conservatives and Labour continues to widen, and the Reform Party is now tied with the Conservatives.”
“If this result is repeated in two weeks’ time, British politics is headed for a shocking outcome, potentially the Conservative Party’s worst ever result and threatening its position as the largest opposition party.”
“Labour could win a huge majority in the House of Commons, close to 500 seats, while the Conservatives would likely win fewer than 100 seats and probably not much more than 50.”
Several MRP polls, which use statistical analysis of large polling samples to produce seat-by-seat results, have suggested the Conservatives could win 150 or fewer seats, and in some cases only a few seats more than the Liberal Democrats.
Just 16% of those surveyed by BMG said they approved of Mr Sunak’s job performance, while 66% disapproved – lower than the ratings of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss at any point.
The Labour leader’s personal rating is 33 percent satisfied and 35 percent dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of minus two.
BMG Research conducted online interviews with a representative sample of 1,627 UK adults between 18th and 19th June 2024. BMG is a member of the British Opinion Research Council and adheres to its regulations.
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