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The overall result of this election is clear in every opinion poll, large and small, with the Labour Party on track for a landslide victory.
But pollsters are divided on how significant that victory would actually be, with Labour’s majority ranging from 162 to 382 votes.
And there is wide disagreement over which seats will ultimately be allocated, with overall agreement beyond the margin of error in just 317 of the UK’s 631 constituencies.
We’ve compiled the eight most recent MRP polls into one map to help you understand how your district and those around you plan to vote.
MRP is a statistical model that uses large samples of data on voting intentions and demographics to try to predict how people will vote, and all the big polling companies are competing to create the most accurate models.
The combination is as follows:
In addition, we also prepared two more complex models. FT and UK ElectionsBoth offer alternative ways of interpreting the data and are worth considering separately.
Where should we look on election night?
- There are 40 seats where three different parties are predicted to win, and 206 seats where two different parties are predicted to win. A four-way split has not happened (yet). North ShropshireYouGov predicts a 28-point lead for the Liberal Democrats, while More in Common predicts a 12-point lead for the Conservatives and the FT model predicts a three-point lead for Labour.
- In seven constituencies, there is unanimity in predicting the winner will have a lead of more than five points, but there is disagreement over which party will win. KarfeldinPlaid Cymru holds an average lead of 10.6% among the six forecasters, while Labor holds an average lead of 6.8% among the other four forecasters.
- The Conservatives are predicted to win just 12 seats. However, of these, none are considered safe by all forecasters (defined as a victory margin of more than 5%). In contrast, there are 308 seats that all forecasters consider safe for Labour: 13 for the Liberal Democrats, one each for the Scottish National Party and Pride Party.
- Things aren’t much better for the Conservatives when looking at seats that more than 50% of forecasters consider safe. Nationwide, this applies to 38 seats, up from 12 previously, including in: Berwickshire, Roxburgh, SelkirkThree pollsters are predicting a narrow victory for the SNP, and one is predicting a Labour victory.
- This makes it unlikely that the Conservatives will win only 38 seats. While all forecasters expect the Conservatives to win many more, questions about the exact number of seats underscore the electoral challenge they face: Seats that were once thought to be the deepest blue are now in the range of red, orange, yellow, green and teal waves.
- The four safest Conservative seats in the country? Arundel & South Downs, Christchurch, East Grinstead & Uckfield, and MaldonIn all, there is only one predictor that suggests limitations.
- The safest Labour seats in the country are Liverpool WaltonThe average win rate was 69.17%.
- At least one polling agency has projected the Greens to win in four constituencies, including: North Herefordshirewith Ipsos, WeThink and FindOutNow predicting a win. Unfortunately for the Greens, other forecasters see them coming in second (YouGov), third (Savanta), fourth (Britain Erectus) and fifth (More in Common) with between 6% and 35% of the vote.
- The closest race in the country is Brigg and ImminghamNine out of 10 forecasters expect him to win by less than 5%.
- There are many variations even within one seat. South East Cornwall Labour has a 17-point lead on Survation, the Conservatives have a 6-point lead on YouGov, and the Liberal Democrats have a 12-point lead. Horsham More in Common is up 13 points for the Conservatives, according to Ipsos.
Why are there such big differences between MRPs?
Most MRPs use similar methodologies but also different modeling, which leads to some variability, much of which is due to the 2024 election being a relatively unusual election.
The Labour Party is a very efficient voter.
Labour is likely to win a smaller percentage of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2017, but thanks to a very evenly distributed vote it will set a new record for the number of seats won by a single party.
The 2017 vote was concentrated in urban, young and diverse areas. Sir Keir Starmer is looking to discard some of these votes in favour of an equal number of votes from a more electorally favourable mix, winning over the Brexit-supporting north and the rural south while retaining (mostly) Labour’s big city seats.
However, this could result in the party winning many seats, albeit by less significant margins, and small changes to the vote or model could have big effects (either for or against Labour).
Decreasing polarization and a shift to smaller parties
The single-issue divide over Brexit has evaporated, with voters moving in less predictable directions. For example, “Turquoise Tories” in places like North Herefordshire They plan to vote for the Greens, although that would have been unthinkable in 2019, when their anti-EU stance may have alienated them.
Overall, the Conservative and Labour vote totals will be the lowest they’ve received in decades, and they will need a much lower percentage of the vote to win any one seat. YouGov now predicts they could win more than 100 seats with less than 35% of the vote, up from three in 2019.
The Coming of Reform
YouGov lists 124 seats where a combined Reform and Conservative vote could win against Labour. While there is no realistic scenario in which all Reform Party voters would switch to the Conservatives, it highlights the big role the Reform Party is playing in this election, despite being unlikely to win many seats.
Strategic Voting
The dogs that haven’t barked in the past few elections may finally bark in 2024. A much greater antipathy towards the Conservatives, or at least a desire for change, combined with a non-threatening alternative, make the situation very favourable.
And because of the many complexities already mentioned, voters are also acting on incomplete information. Waveney Do you think the Greens, who came in fifth in 2019, might actually be the best strategic anti-Conservative vote? (If so, forecasters aren’t really sure.)
Sampling Time
While Labour’s headline figures remained fairly stable throughout the election, the rise of the Reform Party and then the Liberal Democrats has come over the last 21 days or so. The MRP field survey took several weeks so some may have missed the changes, while others may have been published earlier.
I don’t know
There remains a disproportionately high number of “don’t know” responses, most of which were 2019 Conservative voters undecided about whether to vote Conservative, Reform or not at all. How these are modelled in the MRP could have a big impact and may be one reason why Reform’s number of seats fluctuated from 0 to 18.