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In 2019, Hull East proved to be too far-flung for the Conservatives, smashing through the Labour heartland and flipping the so-called “red wall” blue.
Hull East is a traditionally working-class constituency and has been a Labour stronghold since before the start of the Second World War. John Prescott, a Labour stalwart, represented the constituency for 40 years until his retirement in 2010, and Karl Turner has since represented the constituency at Westminster.
But at the last general election five years ago, Turner barely held on to his seat despite his Conservative majority shrinking from 10,396 to just 1,239. He believes he would have lost if he wasn’t from here. “I think the fact that I was the incumbent and was born and raised in this area saved me,” he says. I.
Voter apathy may also be a factor: in 2019, three of the four constituencies with the lowest turnout in the country were in Hull. Hull East had the dubious distinction of topping the turnout rankings despite the vast majority of its voters not turning out to vote, with only 49.3% of eligible voters filling in the ballot paper.
Turner is hoping to win his seat again next week, with bookmakers predicting making him an overwhelming supporter.A series of MRP polls that have attempted to forecast constituency-level outcomes suggest the optimism is well-founded.
If anyone thought the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats or Reform Party could pull off a shock victory, they said no. None of the candidates from the three parties were available for interviews, despite multiple attempts. I.
But Turner acknowledges that getting most of his constituents interested in politics may be a tougher task than winning next week’s election.
“It’s incredibly difficult,” he says. “I know why this is happening in Hull East but I don’t know the answer to what we can do to make it better other than to improve people’s lives and make sure they see a change.”
On the surface, there is nothing out of the ordinary that would make Hull East an obvious choice for record levels of apathy, or even disillusionment. The constituency covers most of the city east of the River Hull, from large council estates like Long Hill in the north to the revitalised Victoria Dock, a hub for affluent young professionals.
A district with only 11.6% of voters
But it’s also home to sprawling pockets of deindustrialization where the old heavy industry and the jobs it provided haven’t really been replaced. Places like Marfleet had the lowest turnout in this year’s city council elections, with just 11.6% of the district’s eligible voters voting. There’s a palpable sense of abandonment and discontent here, with high unemployment and many in low-paying jobs.
You don’t have to go far to see the political apathy and distrust along Holderness Road, which runs through the heart of east Hull. The high street, lined with barbers, nail salons and estate agents, looks busy enough, but locals say it’s not as lively as it used to be.
Trevor Munby runs Trev’s Heel Bar, a shoe repair, lock cutting and hardware shop. He says he is unlikely to vote in the general election. “I very much doubt it this time. I haven’t decided yet. I normally vote Conservative and I have all my life.”
So what changed his mind? “Because no matter what they say, it’s not going to get results.”
He would like to see an increased police presence on the streets to crack down on the prevalence of anti-social behaviour, and feels the area is changing, and not for the better: “When I came here 21 years ago there was a fruit shop, a butcher, a little grocery store – you had everything on this block, but now it’s all estate agents and hairdressers,” he says.
“Since COVID-19, my sales have dropped dramatically. I’m only making half what I used to. Saturday is now my worst day of the week. It used to be my busiest day, but now I close at 1pm.”
Kirsty Green, who runs Craft Cottage, a greeting card and personalised gift shop a few doors down, is similarly disillusioned. She’s not sure whether she’ll vote, either. “I’m not standing at the moment. I’m undecided, because sometimes they say something and you’re induced to vote for them because of that. They say they’ll do something and then you vote and nothing happens.”
“Politicians have become irrelevant”
She didn’t vote in 2019 for the same reason, but has voted in the past. “I’ve bounced around between different parties. I was a swing vote. You hear what they say and you think, ‘Yeah, you’re saying the right things,’ and then you vote for them, and then they stop saying the right things and start doing the exact opposite of what they said they’d do,” she says.
“We’ve gotten to the point now where we don’t believe what we’re being told, and we don’t want to vote for someone who completely contradicts our beliefs. I think we’ve lost faith in the truth.”
Is there anything the major parties can do to change her mind? “They need to put in place measures to support jobs and to get people back into the high streets. Nobody’s going out anymore so you can go into the shops for a day and no one will come.”
That’s the opinion of Lesley Croston, who runs Soap from the Heart, a small family-run business that makes soaps and bath products, and has lived in Holderness Road for three and a half years. “I’ve lost all confidence that things will get better. [politicians] “It’s just talk, but not much action,” she says.
“I think we need more support for small businesses. We need to stop big supermarkets taking over large areas and give us small businesses a chance. When I walk out my door I see three shops have closed within a short distance of my shop. It’s very disappointing.”
Despite her frustration, she says she still plans to vote: “I think it’s important to vote if someone gets elected. [who you don’t like] You have only yourself to blame.”
When you talk to people here, recurring themes include the cost of living crisis, feeling that life is worse than it was 10 or 15 years ago, concerns about immigration numbers and disappointment with Brexit.
“Voting is not people’s No. 1 priority.”
All of this has contributed to the apathy of Hull voters and changing their minds will be a tough task. Turner says many people in east Hull work in the low-wage economy and voting in a general election is not high on their list of priorities.
“Someone came to see me a few weeks ago and was working three jobs, totalling more than 70 hours. [a week]” he says.
“And then at the weekend he was volunteering to run his kids’ soccer team and he was exhausted. That’s the reality. If you’re trying to get a dentist appointment or take your kids to a club after school, going out and voting is not going to be the biggest priority in your life.”
Turner believes voter turnout will go up in this election but not by much. “It won’t break any records, it’ll probably go up by two or three percentage points but people will still be very angry,” he says. “I think Hull, and particularly east Hull, will remain one of the lowest voter turnouts in the country.”
He believes it is the responsibility of political parties to inspire people: “We need to do something on the policy side to encourage and enthusiastically get more people to vote. It’s really important that people vote, not just in east Hull but across the country. We go into schools and speak to kids, we have these discussions. Everything in life depends on what happens on the policy side. Policy and laws are made by central government. It must mean that people are taking part in the democratic process.”
The question is, are people still listening?
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