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The future of the Conservative leadership could depend heavily on the outcome of next week’s general election, with many of the candidates to replace Rishi Sunak likely to lose key allies in the Commons, a source said. I analysis.
If current polls are accurate, leadership candidates including Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat could lose existing supporters.
Despite expectations in Westminster that Rishi Sunak will resign if opinion polls predict a major Conservative defeat on July 4th, active leadership campaigns are thought to have been largely halted during the general election.
“No one knows who will survive,” one lawmaker said. IIt’s also unclear how long a leadership election will take — Conservative elections after general election losses have traditionally taken anywhere from three to six months — and whether the previous rules — that is, MPs will vote to decide between two final candidates — will be followed.
Most of the people expected to run for leadership this time around are people who either ran in 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Sunak, or considered running but decided not to.
According to research I The MRP has identified six early supporters of Ms Badenoch – Suella Braverman, Ms Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt and Ms Patel – in detailed opinion polls published in recent weeks to see whether they will be able to retain their seats.
Having allies in parliament not only increases a candidate’s chances of making it to the final two, but also helps with lobbying to build a base of support among other MPs and party activists.
Passionate supporters are deployed to defend candidates in the media, and constant publicity to their base builds momentum that can be decisive in leadership contests.
Business Secretary Badenoch, the bookmakers’ favourite to become leader, is seen as likely to retain her victory in North West Essex, but of her key supporters only Alex Burgert is expected to win comfortably in his constituency, with Julia Lopez and Eddie Hughes in uncertainty and Lee Rowley, Neil O’Brien and Tom Hunt all expected to lose to Labour.
Tugendhat has repeatedly ruled out standing for leadership again but his allies Neil Hudson and Paul Holmes are expected to return to the House of Commons next week, but others including Damian Green, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Karen Bradley and Robert Largan are expected to lose.
Ms Patel, a former home secretary, did not stand for leadership last time but has been urged to do so by many of her colleagues – Greg Smith is expected to retain his seat, Kevin Foster is an even chance, but Tom Pursglove, Anna Firth, Andrea Jenkins and Shaun Bailey are all expected to lose.
Mr Braverman, a former Home Office secretary, could count on the support of Sir Desmond Swain, Sir John Hayes and Danny Kruger if he decides to run for re-election, but others including Miriam Cates, Steve Baker and Jason McCartney are unlikely to stand.
Leader Mordaunt is the only person other than Sunak who is standing for both Conservative leadership elections in 2022. MRP polls seem to suggest that Mordaunt is heading for defeat in his Portsmouth North constituency. If he returns to Parliament and seeks leadership again, he is likely to be joined by his supporters John Lamont, Alicia Kearns and Harriet Baldwin, with Michael Fabricant and Kieran Mullan in a close race and Theo Clarke expected to lose his seat.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is also a contender for the future leadership, but with Labour leading in the Welwyn Hatfield constituency in opinion polls, it is unclear whether he will be able to return to Parliament next week. Two of the five Conservative MPs who supported Shapps before he left in the 2022 leadership contest have resigned, and three – Robert Court, Graham Stewart and Cheryl Murray – are all in close races for re-election.
Two other MPs often mentioned as potential leadership contenders, James Cleverley and Robert Jenrick, did not seek the leadership position last time, so it is unclear who would support them if they decided to run this year.
Conservative MPs have privately said they will spend the final days of the election trying to limit the scale of their defeat, rather than realistically seeking a majority in the House of Commons. “I think we can win back to the Conservatives those who have been seduced by the reformists through dialogue,” said one minister. “Once they realise that, Labour will join, because there is no love for Labour anywhere, even though there is a lot of unhappiness with us. But it will take a lot of dialogue, and that will take a lot of time and a lot of work.”
The “Red Wall” MP added: “Some of the former reformist Conservatives have clearly softened their stance and are coming back to our side. I am of course heading for a defeat, but not a big one. I still think we can win around 150 seats.”
Many Westminster observers have long predicted the next Conservative leader would reject Mr Sunak’s approach and be chosen from the right wing of the party, but one MP said activists “just want a straight-shooter” and that “there have been fewer pro-Brexit MPs since Boris left”, arguing that a centrist like Mr Tugendhat could hold the party together.
Health Minister Victoria Atkins is seen as another likely candidate, the MP said: “We don’t want to get too far to the right. We need someone decent, credible who can motivate and get things done.”
If the Prime Minister steps down as leader next week, it is unclear whether she will remain in her role as caretaker First Minister or hand powers to an interim leader such as Deputy First Minister Oliver Dowden until a successor is chosen.