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The surprising decline of two of the pillars of British and American politics, the Conservative Party and Joe Biden, has raised the possibility of a new alliance between the UK and the US.
But rather than the next Prime Minister forging ties with a presidential candidate, sources have said Nigel Farage would be Donald Trump’s “natural ally”.
The Reform UK Party leader and President Trump are already working together to create problems for the current UK Prime Minister.
As one former diplomat put it: I Mr Farage “cheated” Mr Trump into criticising Theresa May during Brexit negotiations, with the then-president saying in 2018 that she “didn’t listen to me” about how the negotiations were being conducted, including his intention to “sue the EU”.
A year later, Trump also commented on how “terribly” Trump had handled the negotiations, warning that they were “dividing the country.”
Farage embarrassed the then prime minister by becoming the first international politician to meet Trump in the gold elevator of New York’s Trump Tower after his 2016 election victory, when the British government was prioritising a trade deal with the US as the main prize of leaving the EU.
Now, with the Conservative party in disarray, Mr Farage is finally trying to become an MP at his eighth try, and a YouGov MRP poll shows he is leading Rishi Sunak’s party by 20 points in Clacton.
Meanwhile, several US opinion polls ahead of the November presidential election have given Trump a narrow lead, a position strengthened by Biden’s shaky performance in the first head-to-head presidential debate, where he lost his train of thought, slurred his words and stared with his mouth open while waiting to speak.
This raises a prospect welcomed by populists on both sides of the Atlantic: Mr Farage having a seat in the House of Commons at the same time as Mr Trump is in the White House.
Diplomats, former government officials and foreign policy experts say this scenario could lead to two outspoken politicians “turning each other on” – leading to embarrassment or worse for the incoming Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer.
“Working with President Trump as an international partner clearly posed very significant and tangible challenges for Prime Minister May,” said Paul Harrison, May’s former spokesman.
But Mr Harrison added that it might work to Sir Keir’s advantage to be second, third or even later to meet Mr Trump, given the large number of Labour MPs who vehemently oppose the government under a Republican president.
“But we must not forget that underpinning this is serious national cooperation, particularly on security policy, which is essential to the safety and well-being of both our nations.”
He added that the Labour leader would face a “much more significant” challenge than Ms May because many Labour MPs are favourably disposed towards Trump.
Mr Farage’s presence in the House of Commons “probably” makes things even more difficult: “Farage has made his political career out of being difficult, but Parliament will give him new policies that he never had before, so it will create more difficulties for the new Labour government.”
Mr Harrison said the Reform Party leader had been in “secret” talks with Trump and suggested the next president could hear a different message from the UK to the one endorsed by the Labour government.
While high-level diplomacy can only take place between leaders, “if Trump is elected and Farage becomes an MP, Trump would see him as one of his most natural allies in the UK.”
“For some reason there is a trust between Trump and Farage, but at the same time Keir Starmer may be trying to build that trust as well,” Harrison said.
On the issue of Russia, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Conservative Foreign Secretary, believes that Trump is a more “problematic” candidate than Farage because the Republican threatens to undermine Western unity over Ukraine, whereas Farage, the leader of the Reform Party, is simply a “troublemaker”.
But Chatham House director Bronwen Maddox suggested Mr Farage could provoke Trump into taking a tougher stance on Ukraine.
She said populist figures such as Trump, Farage and Marine Le Pen – whose party may come to power in France after the latest parliamentary elections – “inspire and draw energy from each other”.
“Will he push Trump to take bolder action, especially on Ukraine? Possibly. I don’t think so. [Trump] but [he may think] There are people in Europe who are not completely hostile towards Putin.”
She said that while Farage might support Trump, “I don’t think he’s going to change British policy.”