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SNP leader John Swinney said “disappointment” at the prospect of a Labour government could boost support for Scottish independence.
In an interview IScotland’s First Minister predicted that dissatisfaction with the Labour party could become a “very significant factor” in British politics over the coming years.
Mr Swinney said voters were not ready for a new era of austerity and warned of huge public spending cuts if Labour takes power on July 4.
He suggested that if Labour fails to deliver the reforms it has promised, one political outcome from the anger could be a new surge in support for separation among Scots.
The SNP leader accused Labour of accepting the “same starting point” as the Conservatives over the next Budget, and predicted it will include “significant cuts to public spending”.
“I don’t think that’s what people are expecting from a new Labour government, so I think disappointment will be a very big factor in the new government,” Mr Swinney said.
Opinion polls show Scottish voters are roughly 50-50 on independence from the UK, and Stephen Flynn, Westminster leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), said at the weekend that a Labour government could “help” increase support for independence.
A senior SNP leader said: National “A Labour government would help in that regard, because the changes people are expecting aren’t going to happen.”
Asked if he agreed with Flynn, Swinney said: I“Different election results always create political dynamics.”
“So if a Labour government disappoints, there will be political dynamics that arise from that. Stephen is absolutely right on that point,” he added.
The SNP leader said he wanted as many SNP MPs as possible to be elected “so that we can have a strong voice against austerity in the House of Commons”.
Mr Swinney said a majority in Scotland (29 seats) would give his party the power to open talks with the UK government about a second independence referendum.
But opinion polls suggest the Scottish National Party (SNP) is likely to lose a significant number of its 43 Westminster seats this week, with Labour standing to benefit most north of the border.
The latest polls by Redfield & Wilton, Panelbase, YouGov and Survation show Labour holding a four to six point lead over the SNP in Scotland.
Most polling organisations’ seat forecasts predict the SNP will win between 15 and 25 seats in Scotland, while Labour is expected to win between 25 and 35 seats.
The SNP leader said: I What will he do if the party fails to achieve its majority target?
Mr Swinney argued that the mandate for another referendum was “earned” in 2021 when the pro-independence parties, the SNP and the Scottish Green Party, won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament.
“That mandate should be respected and I think we should have the opportunity to advance that agenda,” he said, adding: “This election gives us an opportunity to increase the pressure and make sure that that mandate is met and respected.”
Mr Swinney, who took up the role just eight weeks ago following the retirement of Humza Yousaf, said he plans to continue in the role beyond the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections.
“I’ve only just taken office,” he said. “My party needs to be strengthened. I have told the party that I am not here for a short period of time. I am not a caretaker or anything like that. I am here to lead the party beyond 2026. That is what I will be doing.”
The SNP leader said his wife, Elizabeth Quigley, a former BBC journalist who suffers from multiple sclerosis, had supported him in meeting the demands of becoming Prime Minister.
Asked about the impact his new role would have on his family, Swinney said: “It has had a huge impact. Elizabeth and I have discussed it. As a family we knew what we were getting into.”
“I didn’t expect the campaign to start so soon. It’s been tough. But we’ve been doing all the right things to handle it appropriately. I’ve been home as much as I can.”