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According to YouGov’s final opinion poll forecasts, the Labour Party is on track to win a landslide victory in today’s general election, winning a majority of 212 seats.
This would give Sir Keir Starmer the largest majority for a single party since 1832 and break a series of electoral records, according to YouGov’s latest MRPs.
YouGov’s main forecast puts the Conservatives on 22% of the vote, Labour on 39%, Reform UK on 15%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Greens on 7%.
This would give Labour 431 seats, the Conservatives 102, the Liberal Democrats 72, the Greens 2 and Reform UK 3. The SNP would win 18 seats in Scotland and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.
So what does a new Labour government mean for the housing sector?
Richard Donnell, of Zoopla, said: “If Labour wins a large majority, which seems likely, this could well boost overall market sentiment as the gap between the two parties is not that wide in many areas.”
“At some point we will see a cut in base rates which will have a bigger impact on market confidence than the election itself, and if this happens in rapid succession it could support sentiment and sales volumes which are expected to rise 10% in 2024.”
“When it comes to housing policy, the growth plans are positive, but they need to be implemented. The housing market is an extension of the economy, so economic growth and wealth creation are ultimately good for homeowners.”
“When it comes to home ownership, affordability remains a major challenge, particularly in the south of England. The First Home Buyer Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could benefit first-time buyers by 5% per year, but unless the new administration can actually increase the supply of more affordable homes to both buy and rent, there will still be pressure on first-time buyers to enter the market with a large down payment.”
“The plans to build more homes are right, but it requires national investment and big-picture planning, and local authorities to be empowered to deliver what is needed on the ground. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.”
Dan Channer, group MD of Haslams, said: “Will a Labour government change the housing market? The Labour manifesto is full of seemingly sensible policies – overhauling the planning process, building on low-quality green belt land and ending bidding wars for rented homes – but few people believe that 300,000 new homes a year will be built.”
“There are rumours flying about the Government building houses with its own balance sheet, but we would like to see concrete policies to replace hearsay. George Osborne got ahead of Labour by banning Section 24 mortgage relief, which will lead to higher rents post-Covid and ironically disenfranchise younger voters. I hope policymakers realise that improving PRS standards requires incentives and subsidies that work in favour of landlords, not against them.”
Mark Pollack, co-founder director of Aston Chase, said: “Barring the addition of unexpected heavy Corbynite/draconian ‘new’ taxes, interest rates will fall, stamp duty for first-time home buyers will be reduced or abolished, and a Labour majority could usher in a rare period of political stability that could actually lift the core and mid-market markets.”
“Conversely, if a Labour government were to try to introduce capital gains tax on primary residences, it would have disastrous consequences and would only further inflate the existing rental market, so hopefully this will not be the case. However, additional tax on second homes seems inevitable, which will further reduce the number of private landlords, as this so-called form of ‘investment’ is becoming an increasingly unattractive proposition for most landlords due to the withdrawal of tax reliefs, rising interest rates, steep increases in service charges, the costs associated with renting and the disproportionate protections given to tenants.”
Jeremy Gee, managing director of Beauchamp Estates, said: “Despite the announcement of a general election, we have not lost any deals that we have agreed and we already know that, unlike most previous elections, this one is likely to produce a Labour government, so we expect this slowdown to only be a temporary respite and we have a busy summer ahead.”
Mr Gee added: “Under a new Labour government, we can expect to see some changes to capital gains tax and inheritance tax. We also already know that Labour will push ahead with proposed reforms to non-resident status, increasing the stamp duty land tax surcharge for overseas buyers by a further 1%.”
“But it is notable that British business leaders, such as Sir Jim Ratcliffe and major Mayfair real estate investor John Caldwell, are backing a new Labour government because they stress that any increased revenue will be invested in the UK economy and infrastructure, helping economic growth and making London an attractive place to live, work and invest.”
“This Labour government is committed to building 1.5 million new homes in its first five years in power, overhauling the planning system to fast-track new housing developments and restarting local authority new housing targets – all of which is to be welcomed. It is worth noting that London’s property market has historically performed well under Labour governments and there is no reason why this should continue under Sir Keir Starmer.”
Peter Wetherell, Founder and Chairman of Wetherell, said: “This is my 11th general election but I have never seen one where the outcome has been considered a foregone conclusion for so long. This mentality has led to buyers of London’s best addresses, particularly in Mayfair, treating it as completely business as usual. We have never seen so many properties for sale in the same period – it’s as if there was no general election. For example, I put a townhouse in Mayfair on the market only a few days ago and it has already sold, and I have just completed a transaction on an apartment in Grosvenor Square.”