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The new authorization gives Ukraine more ways to use its weapons, including against Russia, and experts say the West is finally giving Ukraine the opportunity to properly strike back against Russia.
Until recently, after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was prohibited by its partners from using Western weapons to attack Russian territory.
Russia is fighting without these restrictions, which put Ukraine at a severe disadvantage: It has launched many of its drone and missile attacks from inside Russia’s territory and is massing troops and equipment inside the country in preparation for an offensive against Ukraine.
But for a long time, Ukraine had to rely on options such as long-range drones to strike Russian targets, which have delivered powerful strikes against airbases and other targets but not as effectively as more dedicated weaponry could.
Colonel Hamish de Breton-Gordon, a former commander of the UK and NATO Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Forces, told BI that the restrictions on Ukraine were “absurd.” “The West is giving Russia a huge advantage,” he said.
Other analysts say Ukraine will have to fight with one hand tied.
But many of Ukraine’s international partners changed their tune, announcing in late May that war-torn Ukraine could use the weapons they supplied to attack a number of military targets on Russian territory.
While there are still some restrictions, such as rules for the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Ukraine finally has permission to use at least some weapons against Russian targets, creating an opportunity to “cut off the head of the snake”, de Breton-Gordon said.
Ukraine can fight now
The change would allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian air defense forces inside Russian territory, as well as some of the aircraft and other weapons systems that fire on them, and eliminate missiles and drones at their source rather than intercepting them already in the air.
De Breton-Gordon noted that many of the Russian missile and drone attacks are launched from Russia itself, and said: “If you can’t actually strike them before they’re launched, then you’re already 10-0 down.”
Rescue teams work at a residential building in Kharkiv after a Russian missile attack.
Photo credit: Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images
George Barros, a Russia analyst at the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said the change should be significant for Ukraine’s effectiveness.
“I think that over the last two years, analysts thinking about Ukraine’s capabilities on the battlefield have been very much bound by certain assumptions,” he said. “One of the key points is that the Ukrainian front can’t really improve that much because the Ukrainian military can’t effectively wage combined arms warfare.”
There are several organizational problems within the Ukrainian military that prevent such an operation, but the operation is also hampered by a lack of air support for ground forces.
Baros said Ukraine could begin destroying Russian missile and air defense systems and help the Ukrainian air force and ground forces, including the arriving F-16 fighter jets, advance in ways not possible before.
Russian soldiers launch missile attacks on Ukrainian military positions.
With Russia’s border areas no longer secure, Russia may need to withdraw its weapons systems further away from Ukraine, reducing its ability to attack Ukraine and increasing the strain on other components of the Russian military.
Before some of the restrictions were lifted, “Russia was able to bring its air defence forces, logistics depots and command and control equipment very close to the border, knowing full well that Ukraine could not use anything across the border,” said Philip Ingram, a former British Army intelligence and security officer.
“Now that it has been changed, Russia must change it back,” he said.
“I think the ability to use multiple launch rocket systems, and even F-16s, on Russian territory is going to have a much bigger impact,” said Professor Michael Clarke, a Russia and Ukraine expert and Britain’s national security adviser.
But limitations still remain holding Ukraine back.
The United States still won’t allow Ukraine to penetrate deep into Russian territory to reach military objectives there, meaning Ukraine can’t use long-range weapons like ATACMS to strike where Russian attacks are still coming from. Instead, Ukraine must rely on a few domestically produced options, including Neptune missiles, anti-ship weapons modified for ground attacks, and long-range drones.
An Army tactical missile system undergoing live-fire testing.
White Sands Missile Range/John Hamilton
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Ukraine’s partners should further relax restrictions on attacks on Russian military targets, saying remaining restrictions make it difficult to thwart Russia’s deadly glide-bomb attacks launched from jets outside the range of Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and other military aircraft.
He said Russia had dropped more than 800 glide bombs on Ukraine in the past week alone.
“Ukraine needs the tools necessary to destroy the carriers of these bombs, including Russian fighter jets, wherever they are. This step is essential,” he said.
In a June update, ISW said many of Russia’s major airbases are within range of ATACMS, which Ukraine cannot use, but outside the range of Ukrainian weapons that it is authorized to use, allowing Russia to continue using these bases to launch attacks with impunity.
But while Ukraine seeks greater freedom in how it engages with Russia and uses Western weaponry, the easing of other restrictions has so far produced meaningful results, experts told BI.
Helping in Kharkov
Experts and Ukrainian officials say changes are already happening in Kharkiv, even though the new rules were introduced less than a month ago.
Russia launched a new offensive against Kharkiv on May 10, launching deadly missile attacks and slowly advancing its troops. But since Ukrainian authorizations were changed at the end of May, the pace of the Russian offensive has slowed, as has Russia’s ground operations.
Ukrainian soldiers defend the front line in the Kharkiv region in May 2024.
Photo: Kostyantyn Liberov/Ribkos/Getty Images
Baros said Ukraine has already made “positive changes” since the recent authorization changes. He said, for example, that Ukraine is using Western weapons to attack Belgorod, a Russian region close to Kharkiv.
“They really helped blunt the Russian offensive at its core,” he said, adding that Ukrainian forces were able to launch “small tactical counterattacks.”
Ingram agreed, saying Ukraine’s new permits have “made a big difference in Kharkiv. A really big difference.”
The ability to attack Russia was especially important for Ukraine because the fighting took place so close to the Russian border that the attack could be launched without Ukraine being able to fight back, and new troops and supplies could be brought in. Although Ukraine now has the means to fight back, its military continues to face enormous pressure from a much larger and more relentless Russian military.
“Russian rear guard and artillery are still on Russian soil, and if the Ukrainian military cannot attack them, they will be at a severe disadvantage,” Kancian said, explaining why the United States is willing to allow combat operations in the border area near Kharkiv.
He said there were also reports that Russia had moved some of its air defence forces from the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine, which it occupies. To defend BelgorodHe called this “very significant.” If Ukraine can force Russia to do similar things in more places, it will force the Russian military to make tough decisions about what to defend and how.
But authorization is not the only factor. Ukraine’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance situation also matters and will determine the effectiveness of any attack. The United States has assisted in targeting in the past, but it is unclear to what extent it will be involved in this effort. Either way, Ukraine has been successful.
Ukraine’s artillery commander recently told the Associated Press that Ukraine is High Mobility Artillery Rocket System As soon as Ukraine received the new authorization, it began shelling the Kharkiv area and in the first few days “succeeded in wiping out entire columns of troops along the border that were waiting for orders to enter Ukraine.”
Two Ukrainian officials The Washington Post Since the new authorization was issued, there has been a drop in some Russian attacks in the region, The Associated Press reported. Ukraine’s new operational authorization has “significantly slowed” Russia’s momentum in Kharkiv, the AP reported.