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Keir Starmer cannot expect a Labor landslide based on his party’s by-election victory in West Lancashire, pollsters say.
Support changes in by-elections are not usually evenly distributed in general elections, but according to Savanta director Chris Hopkins, if the Conservatives lose 10.5% of the polls, Labor will likely lose 10.5% of the vote. That would be about 300 seats, just short of a majority.
YouGov’s Associate Director Patrick English also said that in order to have a Labor majority of just 1, a value close to 13% would have to be uniformly applied.
Ashley Dalton won West Lancashire with 8,326 votes, with the Conservatives second, but with just 25% of the vote.
But the very safe Labor seat has a turnout of just 31%, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the 2024 general election based on that single result.
The shift in support for Labor in West Lancashire does not reflect current national polls, with Lord Kiel’s party showing a consistent lead of around 20 points over the Tories, with a landslide likely. is showing.
A party that has been in power for more than a decade faces a cost-of-living crisis and severe industrial unrest, and is expected to consistently perform poorly in midterm by-elections.
Poll experts also say it will be difficult for Labor to secure a substantial majority without securing further support in Scotland, where it has overtaken the SNP for years. This means that the party would have to overperform in the UK parliamentary seats for Lord Kiel to become Prime Minister.
YouGov’s English said a uniform national variation (UNS) of around 13% would normally be required for Labor to secure an overall majority, but added: But basically you have to ask yourself, ‘What kind of national swing do you think Labor should adopt rugby’ and that’s your answer. About 9-10 points, I think. “
Savanta’s Hopkins said: Ultimately, though, this is his problem with the UNS, which he extrapolates from a by-election with low turnout, especially in safe seats.
“We had over 30,000 more votes cast in West Lancashire in 2019 than we did yesterday, so it sets a cap or cap on how well Labor can do here. Essentially, low voter turnout penalizes parties that are doing much better than they did last time.
“Mathematically, it’s almost the opposite for the Conservatives. Recent polls show they are nearly 20 percentage points lower than their overall UK share of the vote in 2019, but they could end up with a negative share. Worst case scenario, anyway, because of the fact that things didn’t work out here in 2019.”
Hopkins said an MRP poll conducted by Savanta in December, which delved into voting intentions for marginal seats, showed Labor at 64.3% to 22.3% for Conservatives, indicating a landslide.
The results in West Lancashire could give Rishi Snak and his party reason for hope. Notably, in the opposition, the Tories won his 2008 Crew and Nantwich by-elections by a wide margin of 17% against him, and two years later the results of the general election hung in Parliament.
Conservative pollster Lord Hayward said:
“They’re going to take the view that this is a midterm by-election, and it really shows that Labor’s lead of 20 points is clearly not there at the moment people go to vote.”
Paul Goodman conservative home “The result of the West Lancashire by-election, combined with other recent results, could point instead to a hung parliament or a narrow general election.”