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Rishi Sunak will announce his Brexit plans over the weekend. Some have spoken of his leadership as balanced.
The prime minister is poised to reveal an agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol as early as Monday, but about a week after the announcement was first expected, Tory MPs and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) ) received a backlash from .
Doubts are growing whether he can convince skeptics that his deal could suffer the same fate as the Checkers Brexit proposal that marked the beginning of the end for Theresa May. Some people make predictions.
Briefings about cabinet ministers and parliamentary secretaries (PPS) preparing to resign are increasing, and one MP said Brexit issues became “existential” for Sunak as people started to resign. I have been warned that there is a possibility that
After a week of cabinet tensions over negotiations, and after Boris Johnson divulged the secret to criticize Mr Sunak for seeking a deal rather than pursuing unilateral action, the conservatives Party insiders warn that the backlash against concessions to the EU is worse than expected.
The DUP, on the other hand, is likely to be key to the political viability of any deal, but a controversial compromise that would allow Northern Ireland to strengthen its role in the scrutiny of EU law would be “our We are not going to solve the problem for the sake of it,” he warned.
It is this backdrop that sets the week for the Tory psychodrama, which Mr. Sunak has successfully contained since becoming prime minister, to risk returning with vengeance.
A party official suggested that Sunak may have miscalculated the size of the opposition he would face.
“I think No 10 thought this was all easy,” they said. “I think it’s worse than you think.
“I was cautious, but I was surprised when I spoke to a junior minister who said he would not support the ECJ if it existed. And they are not headbangers.
“It made me think they [No 10] Last Friday, I was in more trouble than I thought. ”
Attempts to point out to potential rebels that they voted for the ECJ’s involvement in supporting Mr Johnson’s so-called “oven-ready” Brexit deal fell on deaf ears. I am concerned that the Conservatives are far behind Labor in the polls.
Despite voters’ dismay at the change in Tory leadership over the past year, it has led to renewed warnings that the prime minister’s leadership could be under threat.
Some predict that dissatisfaction could boil over after tough Tory local elections are expected in May.
As one former Conservative minister said: Polling ratings mean that political parties in the country want him out of office and people are kicking him in all directions.
“If the prime minister asks you to vote against the DUP, ask Jacob Rees Mogg: Does he still trust the prime minister?”
MP added:God help us, it’s a penny [Mordaunt] or suela [Braverman] Next I hope – I despair.
However, insider sources suggested a leadership challenge could help Sunak. said.
“A rishi big win could silence at least some parliamentarians for a while. I don’t know how that will help the next election, though.”
However, senior government officials questioned that Sunak’s leadership was “threatened because it has not yet taken place and no one knows what it is about”.
Some critics suggested Sunak was not involved in the DUP, Arch Brexit European Study Group (ERG) Although he may lose his favor during negotiations, the No 10 defends a highly secretive approach to negotiations.
Downing Street has limited the number of people who can learn details of the talks to a small inner circle to reduce the risk of leaks that could destabilize negotiations.
Most of the No 10 advisers and public officials have been completely barred from the process, but the UK and EU administrations have mutually agreed not to publish most of their discussions.
Even the phone call between Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been kept secret long after the fact, in violation of normal arrangements for formal talks between leaders.
If details were leaked and provoked backlash from key stakeholders, either side could begin to backtrack on what had already been agreed upon, pushing the whole process back.
One of the sources involved likened the negotiations to a “4D game of chess.”
However, the approach provoked a backlash from the ERG’s Conservative Party.
Even Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton Harris, a former ERG key figure, has been criticized for “absolutely inadequate” briefings to MPs.
But a friend of Heaton-Harris said he was “known for his attention to detail and would give as much information as he could, but it’s a negotiation, so all the cards.” You can’t put it on the table,” he said.
“As an avid Brexiteer and former chairman of the ERG, there is no better person to lead these negotiations,” they added.
One former cabinet minister said the government was wrestling with “smoke and mirrors” around negotiations in an attempt to persuade skeptics.
“The ERG was told that everyone would be happy. How could that happen?” they said.
DUP Westminster Chief of Staff Sammy Wilson said I He gave a worrying briefing on one of the government’s major victories at the talks, the creation of so-called ‘green lanes’ that would allow goods to be sent from the UK to Northern Ireland without physical checks. I was receiving
Mr Wilson said that even though customs procedures have been streamlined, there are still a great many requirements for carriers to DUP regarding paperwork to be traded between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland and thus in the eyes of the party. He said that he said that there is a place for the region in the coalition. , will continue to be interrupted.
“There is still sufficient additional information that must be produced in order to transport goods to Northern Ireland to ensure that businesses are not worth selling in Northern Ireland,” he said. I.
Mr Wilson also said he expected the government to announce a stronger role for Northern Ireland institutions in scrutinizing how EU law is applied within the state, but said: “We have not received any indication as to what information Northern Ireland’s parliament could provide to the EU.” Ask if it’s inappropriate to reconsider. ”
“The problem for us is the principle of its application in the first place, so that doesn’t solve the problem,” he said.
He could also use the split between what the government sees as hardliners like himself and more moderate DUP members like leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to strike a deal. He strongly rejected the proposal and warned that his party was under pressure from voters to “stand firm”. for the May election.
However, Wilson said he doesn’t believe the government is “miscalculating” and can instead enter into agreements that were not initially approved by the DUP.
“I think they have come to realize that there are certain things that the EU will not move forward on. If we can present it, and it’s something concrete that the people of Northern Ireland have been asking for, and hopefully over time it will be enough to persuade our voters to change our stance on it. It is to let
Meanwhile, amid hints at the extent of the ERG’s anger at the government’s handling of the issue, the former cabinet minister said the run-up to the deal reflects the approach taken by Theresa May to her infamous Checkers Brexit plans. but it was rejected by the Tory party, who eventually ousted her as prime minister.
“This is PTSD for us here at Checkers and it’s the exact same playbook. Look at this shiny little thing right here. Behind the scenes the smoke machine covers the ECJ, red and green lane details, etc. I’m working overtime for this.”
Sunak’s supporters have criticized the ERG’s decision to negotiate lightly with trade unionists and have called on the Tory to focus on winning the next elections by taking a party-wide stand against the DUP.
As one minister said:
“I don’t know how many emails I’ve received about immigrants being put up in hotels in our constituency, but we’re not on the coast.
“This is something that people care about and that needs to be worked out rather than worrying about whether the ECJ will play any role in Northern Ireland.”
Ultimately, however, it is the issue of small boats in the strait that could become an even bigger intraparty issue for Mr. Sunak.
There were signs of growing frustration among parliamentarians over the lack of promised legislation, raising concerns over a so-called “pardon” for asylum seekers from war-torn countries announced this week.
A member of parliament said of the small boat crisis: