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Labor continues to lead the Conservatives by 20 points heading into this week’s by-election, but the latest polls show Sir Keir Sturmer’s party down just one point.
A poll by Techne UK on Wednesday and Thursday showed Labor leading the Conservatives by 19 points.
Lord Kier’s party started the year with a margin of about 20 points over the Conservatives, but by spring the gap had narrowed to about 15 points as Rishi Suakku regained some ground.
But in recent weeks the gap has started widening again, with Labour leading by an average of 17-24 points.
A poll of 1,632 adults this week found 45% backed Labor, down one point from the previous week.
The Conservatives held steady at 26%, while the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP held steady at 11%, 5% and 3% respectively.
Only the Reform UK increased support, rising from 6% to 7%.
A poll last week showed Labour’s support at 43%, 15% ahead of the Conservatives at 28%. A Savanta poll earlier this month also showed Labour leading by 15 points.
Lord Kea said the Conservative Party’s defeat this week showed voters were “crying for change”.
Labor won in Selby and Ainsty, and Liberal Democrats won in Somerton and Frome, both overturning majorities of about 20,000. The Conservatives narrowly defended Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtis said the results across all three seats showed the Conservatives down 21 points, mirroring national polls.
He said the results implied the Conservatives were in “serious electoral trouble” despite Sunak’s insistence that the results showed the next election had not yet been lost.