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Less than two hours after the polls closed, the Liberal Democrats claimed they were “back on their feet” in the Somerton and Frome by-elections.
If the Liberal Democrats’ claims are tested early this morning, it would be their fourth victory in a by-election in a traditionally safe Conservative seat in just over two years and the first of three losses expected for tonight for the Conservatives.
Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said her party wouldn’t declare victory so soon if it wasn’t sure Sarah Dyke had overturned the Conservative majority of 19,213 votes.
“We don’t just think we’ve won, we think we’ve gone home,” Jardine said. We believe the Conservative vote has collapsed. is in free fall. ”
After claiming victory, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey tweeted: “We’re going to need a bigger tractor.”
The Conservatives also acknowledged that things appeared to be going in favor of the Liberal Democrats.
Somerset County Council Conservative group leader David Fothergill said: “We’ll have to wait for the official results, but it looks like the Liberal Democrats are off to a good night.”
With voter turnout reported as low as 44.23 per cent, Mr Fothergill suggested that traditional Conservative voting may be staying home.
If Liberal Democratic candidate Sarah Dyke is declared to win the seat later tonight, the party’s approval ratings will swing by at least 15%.
It could also be a terrible night for the Conservatives, who are expected to lose again tonight to Labor at Uxbridge and Selby.
If the Conservatives lose all three by-elections, Rishi Sunak will become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to suffer a hat-trick defeat.
“Maybe tonight the Conservatives lose three by-elections overnight,” Ms Jardine added. “This has happened overnight to a Prime Minister since Harold Wilson in 1968.
“Yes, it’s an important night and it gives us a good indication of what will happen in the General Election. The General Election couldn’t happen any sooner for us.”
“This result for Mr. Somerton and Mr. Frome, and the results expected elsewhere tonight, show that people want change, and that change will happen when the general election is held.”
Some Conservatives fear a third-place finish could make Somerset’s night even worse, with Green Party candidate Martin Dimery claiming his vote has increased significantly.
“Last time I finished fourth, but it looks to me like I can finish higher this time.
“We’re looking at the count table right now, and there’s a second possibility.”