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On a breezy midsummer evening at the Rose Garden in Downing Street this week, Rishi Snack was eager to quote billionaire investor Warren Buffett about the importance of anticipating market changes.
Wearing the now ubiquitous crisp white shirt with rolled up sleeves, the prime minister preached an Omaha oracle about knowing when to “call your turn” and how doing it right can make the difference between winning and losing.
Following the results of Friday’s three disparate by-elections, Mr. Sunak now plans to scrutinize ballot box decisions to determine for himself whether the election market is further unfavorable to the government.
The Conservatives won a dogfight shortly after the by-election results, leaving the press largely focused on their victory over Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and West Ruislip seats.
Labor Mayor Sadiq Khan’s decision to extend the ultra-low emission zone beyond central London has greatly undermined the Conservative Party’s attempt to win another seat.
But while party headquarters touted the victory at Uxbridge and Mr Sunak was doing his best to avoid whitewashing 3 zeros, there would be deep concern within the Conservative leadership about the blows the party had taken in Somerton and Frome in the southwest and Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire.
Speaking to the broadcaster at Uxbridge’s Greasy Spoon Cafe, the prime minister claimed Friday’s results meant the general election was not a “done deal” for Labor.
But the atmosphere in his unit was much darker.
“The Uxbridge result is a band-aid,” said one Conservative MP. I. “I think the other results will trickle down to my colleagues over the summer.”
The former minister added: “Everyone expected three defeats, so Uxbridge’s victory was a pleasant surprise. The danger is that the party has not given due consideration to other consequences which should be construed as heavy blows to the government.”
In Selby, the 23.7% change was the second largest post-war Conservative to Labor change, with Keir Starmer’s party holding no seats for more than a decade.
During the Summerton and Frome campaigns, the Conservatives were heavily criticized by Liberal Democratic candidate Sarah Dyke, whose ignorance of the constituency made headlines early in the campaign and cut off interviews for knowing little about demographics. But she overthrew the Conservative majority of 19,000.
Some Conservatives tried to ignore the defeat. One former cabinet minister described it as the usual “midterm by-elections that make voters want nosebleeds.”
One minister said, “It was completely predictable. Voters were so furious with Nigel that they stayed home. [Adams the former Selby MP] and david [Warburton the ex-Somerton MP]”
Despite these attempts to explain the disastrous defeat, the Conservatives are now calling for Mr Snack to make changes, restructuring and revamping his first team.
“Mr Rishi needs to make more use of people with the best communication skills,” the former minister said. “He should find a more prominent role for Penny.” [Mordaunt]. She’s not a great pastor, but she’s got something and she’s good on the air. he also [James] Be smart. They are our best communicators.
“He has to get rid of [Oliver] Dowden – He’s just awful.and why chemi [Badenoch] Are you still at work? She only fights needlessly. she was completely spotted.Suera should also drop [Braverman] Because she is responsible and he is not. ”
But another Conservative Party official doubted there was much Mr Sunak could do to turn the party’s fortunes around, adding: “Fulfilling his five promises would help.”
There are growing doubts about the prime minister’s ability to deliver on his commitments, especially regarding crossing the channel by small boat. Local Conservatives have highlighted it as one of the biggest problems for Selby voters, despite the constituency’s geographic distance from the south coast.
Mr. Sunak sent his lawmakers out on summer vacation and promised to come back in the fall to lay out a “long-term vision” for the country. The prospect of it being offered to voters in retail countdown to the 2024 election was enough to give some of the Conservatives optimism.
“It’s enough to reduce the poll lead by one point each month, and then we have a chance,” said one backbench.
Unsurprisingly, Labor dismissed as wishful thinking such panglossian prospects, which were largely based on Uxbridge’s results. “I think it’s kind of ludicrous to think that this shows that you can win the next election,” said the party official. I.
He added that the Labor leadership had struggled to highlight the extent of the Conservative-to-Labor transition in Selby and had never supported Uxbridge, even during Blair’s administration.
Mr Khan’s Urez policy was blamed for failing to capitalize on the anti-Conservative turn, with deputy leader Angela Reiner blaming the party’s failure to “listen to voters”.
There is now deep concern among Labor MPs about the impact of non-capital mayors on their futures.
“Greater Manchester candidates are now nervous about Andy’s behavior.” [Burnham] We will,” said one Labor MP.
The fact that the Mayor of Greater Manchester Metro, Mr Burnham, has experienced a serious rift with Sir Kia Sturmer and the Labor leadership has only heightened tensions within the party.
But most of all, within Labor, we are happy to have become a party where voters feel “confident and at ease” to vote for alternatives.
“It’s a testament to how we’ve changed under this leadership and put us in a position where we can reap the benefits when people are angry,” the senior official said.
Party insiders are already looking beyond this week’s by-elections, with Labor officials now eyeing possible by-elections in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, north of the border. The district has a recall petition underway following the 30-day House suspension of former SNP Rep. Margaret Ferrier.
“That’s going to be the real test. If we can bring it back to Labor, we’ll have a better chance of winning 15-20 seats in Scotland,” said a Labor official.
Such a result for Labor in Scotland would dramatically increase the odds of a Labor majority in the next election, although the timing is still open to speculation. I I understand that Sunak and his ministers already have a date in mind.
A senior Labor Party official said he believes the Conservatives could defy conventional wisdom and hold a general election in May next year.
They explained that Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt could announce a sugar rush tax cut in the spring budget, punching a hole in Labor’s spending plans and then going straight to elections before Sir Kia has time to respond properly.
“That’s what they did in ’92,” the source said.
It remains to be seen whether Labor will receive support from the Liberal Democrats in its bid for power. The tactical voting utilized in Friday’s tripleheader is easier to manage in a by-election, but an all out effort in the general election makes such efforts much more difficult.
Labor’s decision to barely resist in Somerton and Frome allowed the Liberal Democrats to gain even greater scalps from the Conservatives in the South West, giving the party serious momentum.
Among those celebrating on Frome’s cobbled streets was Lady Jane Ashdown, the widow of the party’s former leader Paddy. “I am very excited,” she said.
“Paddy will be spinning in the air this morning with a big smile on his face. We are back in the West.”
The party leadership now has its sights set on Mid Bedfordshire, a safe seat for the Conservative Party where Nadine Dries has announced she will resign.
But now there are growing doubts as to whether she will pull it off. A former Conservative minister said: “She will still be in the election before the general election.” She said, “She has a neck of brass, so she has no hesitation in sticking it out.”
But over the next six weeks, MPs will be back in their constituencies and out of the Westminster bubble. “It would be good for everyone to be away from parliament for a while,” said one minister.
In the meantime, Sunak will try to come up with a plan to turn a political disadvantage in his favor. If the prime minister has any chance of succeeding, this is going to be a crucial summer.