- The pre-owned luxury watch market has continued to decline for more than a year, largely driven by the top three brands.
- Still, nearly three-quarters of Rolex models made today are worth more used than new.
- Patek Philippe still carries the highest resale premium, but only half of its models are above retail.
Over the past few years, the luxury watch resale market has focused on the top three Swiss brands: Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and, of course, Rolex.
In particular, demand for Rolex Royal Oaks, Aquanauts, and Daytonas (and a few other models) has outstripped supply for new watches, driving prices up.
“The big three brands have long been attractive,” WatchCharts founder and CEO Charles Tian told Insider, noting that resale prices for some major models have significantly exceeded retail prices since at least 2017.
“At first it was a very gradual rise, but low interest rates and rampant speculation led to a spike in 2021 and early 2022,” he said.
Now, with the overall watch resale market returning to tranquility, the big three brands still command a premium in the second-hand market over retailers, according to a new Morgan Stanley report using watch chart data.
This means that these top three brands (especially the top models they make) are so hard to find in retail stores that your only option to get the watch you want is to go to the used market and pay a premium.
A man looks at a Rolex watch in a shop window in New York.
Spencer Pratt/Getty Images
Of the current 129 Rolex models, 89 are worth more used than new, according to the report.
The analysis considers each unique variation (steel, gold, etc.) within the various collections (Datejust, Yacht-Master, etc.) currently manufactured and sold through authorized retailers. The popular Daytona and Skydweller collections were left out of Rolex as they underwent an overhaul earlier this year, but the data is still coming in.
Surprisingly, the model that saw the biggest relative increase in value was the Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 with a turquoise dial, which sells for $6,100 new but more than doubles pre-owned.
Last year’s left-handed GMT-Master (Ref. 126720VTNR) now retails for almost double its $11,250 retail price.
On average, pre-owned Rolex watches are 24% more expensive than retail, less expensive than pre-owned Patek Philippe watches, and more expensive than Audemars Piguet watches.
Still, neither brand is as good as Rolex when it comes to the percentage of their current watch lineup that sells for more used than new. Only half of Patek Philippe’s current models sell for more than the second time, as do about 70% of Audemars Piguet’s current models.
“Rolex is the only brand that has achieved high popularity across its diverse catalog of model lines,” Tian said.
By comparison, nearly all models from other big Swiss brands lose at least some value when sold at retail. This is clearly what happens to most consumer goods, luxury or not.
Against the backdrop of declining secondary market prices, these figures show that demand is still significantly outstripping supply, even though the most sought-after models have fallen in value significantly.