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Opinion polls show the Conservatives face a worse electoral defeat than Labor’s 1997 landslide.
In the latest blow to Rishi Sunak’s leadership, YouGov has predicted Labor will win 403 seats if an election is held tomorrow.
The Conservatives are on track to win 155 seats, fewer than when Labor won under Sir Tony Blair.
This represents a decline in the number of constituencies the Conservatives were expected to win in the same poll held in January, when they were expected to hold 169 seats.
The decline in support shows that the party has not been revived since the government’s tax-gift budget.
Meanwhile, Labor’s results showed an increase of 18 seats since the start of the year, suggesting it is gaining popularity among voters.
YouGov interviewed 18,761GB adults throughout March in the days following the Spring Budget.
Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt announced at the time that the government would introduce an additional two rates for every NIC cut, but this was widely seen as a sweet pre-election move to improve the party’s fortunes. It was something.
But this latest analysis from YouGov shows that while Sir Keir Starmer’s Labor Party is on course for a victory comparable to Tony Blair’s, Mr Sunak faces a worse result than John Major. Suggests.
In the 1997 election, Labor under the Blair government won 418 of the 659 seats in the House of Commons.
The analysis uses multistep regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling to predict outcomes in specific seats, and finds prominent Conservative figures at risk. found.
Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt, House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Science and Technology Secretary Michelle Donnellan and Wales Secretary David TC Davies are among the senior ministers expected to be sacked.
These prominent Conservatives were also named as at risk in a similar poll by Survation. Sunday Times, This meant the Conservative Party would be reduced to just 98 seats.
A Survation poll suggested that even Mr Sunak could lose his seat, with Labor on track to win 468 seats.
There were concerns among Tories that Nigel Farage’s Reform Britain party could hurt their electoral chances by cutting off right-wing voters.
Although the party has increased its support in recent opinion polls, district-level analysis shows it is still not expected to win any seats, despite coming in second place with 36 seats. ing.
The party has the highest support in the so-called red wall seats of Barnsley North and Hartlepool, but remains 20 points behind Labor in both constituencies.
Data suggests Reformers may have captured some of the 2019 support base that tilted from Labor to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, leaving seats open for Sir Keir’s party to pick up. are doing.
Based on the same model as in January, the Liberal Democrats gained two seats to 49. And while the Green Party will host the Brighton Pavilion, it will not make a profit elsewhere.
YouGov predicts Labor will become the largest party in Scotland, winning 28 seats to the SNP’s 19.
Plaid Cymru will gain one seat from January for a total of four seats, with the Welsh nationalists expected to take the lead in Caerfyrddin.