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“If Mr Rishi survives the next two weeks, he will lead his party into the election, whether it’s in July or January.” This was the decision made by ministers as voting closed on Thursday night. It was the verdict. It has been clear for months that this week’s local elections could decide Mr Sunak’s chance as prime minister.
Since Suela Braverman left government, a group of MPs, former advisers and former donors have been actively agitating to make the Prime Minister’s life as difficult as possible. But even before the conspirators moved in, this was seen as Sunak’s weakness.
As the ouster of the last two Tory leaders has shown, disastrous polling tends to panic Tory MPs. If that happens, there may be growing calls for a new leader. The question at Westminster is: Are the results of these local elections bad enough to persuade MPs to start over?
Results are coming in gradually, and continued to do so over the bank holiday weekend, but the situation is far from clear. A minister on Friday said: “It could be much worse, but there is still a long way to go. Conservative MPs will look at the results in more detail than people realize. There is so much data out there that all the results are We’ll have to wait until it comes out.” That means it won’t be until Sunday that lawmakers feel like they’ll get the full picture.
The effort against Sunak is the first step in the local council results, and the party’s results are certain to be historically poor. Unlike last year, it’s even harder for him to distance himself from them. In 2023, Mr Sunak could argue that his own chancellorship is only just beginning and that his party still has the trauma of the Truss Johnson era.
A year later, it has become a uniquely “managerial” style of governance for right-wing MPs to blame for the party’s dismal polling. One Conservative strategist said of the defeat of several key councils, including Redditch and deep blue Rushmoor council (which has been run by the Conservatives for the past 24 years): Middle England was gone. ”
There is a sense of relief within the government that the Conservatives narrowly pushed the Reform Party into second place in the Blackpool South by-election, but the fact that they only received around 100 votes has left the party unsettled. There is. “The share of the Reform vote in Blackpool is very worrying,” said one senior minister. Another government official added: “It’s probably a fluke of a by-election, but it does indicate a reduction of probably 500 to 1,000 votes in most seats, which is important for the minority.”
Conservative MPs on Friday observed the swing from the Conservatives to Labor and considered whether they would leave. Labor front-runner Jonathan Ashworth congratulated the tenacity of Lincolnshire’s Tory Police and Crime Commissioner when he bluntly told Tory vice-chairman Jonathan Garris – if he went to Labor. That’s what he would do if the 16% swing was replicated in Garris’s seat in Stoke-on-Trent North. Becomes “toast”.
That’s why Sunak is still not completely out of the woods, despite Ben Houchen’s victory in the Tees Valley to secure a third term. “It’s the least Ben can do to protect the Tees Valley. If he had lost, we would have been in the Wild West.” There is also talk among MPs of mayors fighting against Labor to protect the Tees Valley. All this has not gone unnoticed by the fact that both Mr Houchen and Mr Andy Street are effectively running personal brands against the party’s record.
Nevertheless, Downing Street is hoping that the good fortune of big city mayors will be enough to get the Prime Minister over the line. Mr Sunak’s decision to visit Houchen on Friday shows the Prime Minister is close to success, even if the Tees Valley mayor’s campaign is far from the centre.
Mr Sunak will likely gain more support if Mr Street is re-elected in the West Midlands on Saturday, but Labor insiders are pessimistic about his chances. One MP said it was Susan Hall’s victory in London, scheduled for Saturday, that would really save Sunak. I don’t think it will happen seriously though. ”
So far, Sunak has not left the danger zone. A growing number of MPs believe Mr Sunak will not be ousted because there is still no clear challenger. “He’s lucky to have Boris.” [Johnson] I said no, and gave up,” the former cabinet minister said. “Otherwise I think he would have been sent off.”
But even if this is true, the risk to Mr Sunak is not just a simple no-confidence vote.
Already some Tory MPs, such as Paul Scully, are calling for more vision and suggesting Number 10 is in a “bunker mentality”. Former minister and Conservative MP Justin Greening has also raised concerns. If misfortune spreads, MPs could demand a change in strategy or even a change in staff at No. 10 Downing Street.
“There are other ways to make the voices of members heard than by dismissing leaders,” says a party veteran. As MPs begin to speak out, we can expect to hear calls for further consultation on the strategy and greater involvement of MPs in operations. If the Rwanda plan fails to stop border crossings, the threat of reform could prompt a manifesto to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
For now, the jury is out. The Minister said: “Most MPs remain silent. No one wants to be on the wrong side of a debate. If Sunak is clearly winning or losing, there will be more noise and there will be no alternative. This shows that this is still a real problem.”
Most expect the rebels to try to drum up anti-Sunak sentiment over the weekend ahead of parliament returning to parliament on Tuesday. Thanks to Houchen, Sunak now has some form of shield. But even a mayoral election and two victories cannot distract from the scale of the losses in the old Conservative heartland. These are the things that lawmakers will ponder and agonize over in the coming days.