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Incoming SNP leader John Swinney wants his party to believe he is the man who can lead Scotland to independence.
Asked on Sunday whether he was confident that Scottish nationalists’ long-held dream could finally be realized, Mr Siwiny told the BBC: “Yes.”
In fact, Mr. Swinney knows the cause has reached an impasse. The Supreme Court’s rejection of a proposal to hold a second referendum in 2022 leaves the party with no clear path forward.
Opinion polls show Scottish voters have been deadlocked on this issue in recent years, remaining almost 50-50 throughout the turmoil of Brexit and coronavirus. There are very few things that can change direction.
In a marked change in tone from Humza Yousaf, who resigned as SNP leader and prime minister, Mr Shiwini appears to be realistic about the coming years.
He refused to repeat Mr Yousaf’s claim that winning a majority of seats in a general election would mean another referendum was required, and went back to basics to persuade Scots of the merits of independence. He said he would focus on the campaign.
He also said a “really convincing and demonstrable increase” in opinion polling was needed to persuade the British government to agree to another referendum. The SNP veteran told Sky News: “There is not enough public support in Scotland to make it a convincing proposal.”
Is that attitude enough for independent activists inside and outside the SNP?
Without renewed debate on the subject, Mr Swinney may not have a chance at the top job. An unknown SNP activist called Graham McCormick could throw a spanner in the works.
If Mr McCormick collects the required 100 signatures in 20 branches by midday on Monday, the separation strategy will come under public scrutiny during the three-week campaign.
The activist, who used the weekend’s pro-independence demonstrations in Glasgow to rally support, attacked the party’s approach to independence at a conference last year, calling it “heartbeating in a trance”.
Apart from struggling on big constitutional issues, Mr Siwiny faces a more immediate battle to win votes in the Scottish Parliament while leading a minority government.
The pro-independence Scottish Greens remain bitter about the way the coalition deal was scuppered under Mr Yousaf and have made it clear that they are not at Holyrood just to agree with the SNP’s policies. It will solidify his resolve to show to voters.
Mr Siwiny said on Sunday he would “probably” have the support of Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to pass the budget and get other things done.
But their antipathy towards the SNP, and their desperation to remove the nationalists from power, is now even more intense than during the previous minority government.
So whether Mr. Swinney is coronated quickly or has to spend three weeks in boring debates with anonymous activists, he knows that his main job is to run a competent government. I know that. Efforts at independence will have to wait until confidence is restored.