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Tory leaders have blasted Rishi Sunak’s claims that Labor is on a path to a shutdown and urged a change in election strategy.
The Prime Minister has claimed local election results show Labor will not win enough seats to form a majority in a general election, drawing criticism from the Conservative Party and pollsters alike.
It is part of Number 10’s latest political strategy to warn voters that Sir Keir Starmer will be made Prime Minister by a rainbow coalition of the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Instead, ministers are urging Mr Sunak to keep talking about improving the economy and to take his message to heart: “Vote for reform and win for workers.”
The idea of a hung parliament was first raised by epidemiologist Professor Michael Thrasher, who said that if the local election results were repeated in the general election, Labor would fall 32 seats short of a majority.
But the pollsters say this analysis assumes voters will vote exactly the same way in the general election, that Labor’s performance is unchanged from the Scottish and Welsh general elections in 2019, and that the impact on the Conservative Party is It is pointed out that this has not been taken into account. Reform Britain.
Mr Sunak reiterated this claim during a visit to central London yesterday, saying: “The independent analysis shows that this has of course been a disappointing weekend for us, but the outcome of the next general election remains uncertain. It’s not a conclusion,” he said.
“And in fact, things are closer than many are saying, or indeed than some polls predict.”
Conservative Party leaders have criticized the strategy and blamed it on Isaac Levido, CCHQ’s top elections expert, who has been involved in former boss Lynton Crosbie’s ‘Union of Disruption’ campaign since 2015. He has been accused of trying to revive the then SNP leader Alex, and he created a picture of Ed Miliband inside the then SNP leader Alex. Salmond top pocket.
former minister said I: “I don’t buy it at all. I think this is Isaac trying to mount a campaign using the attack line of supporting Starmer. [SNP leader John] Swinney, just as Linton did with Miliband and Salmond. But life moved on. ”
Lord Burwell, former leader of the party and No. 10, also slammed the election plan, saying: “Labour did not do as well as they did in 2019.” [the] Locals like South Blackpool… the Tories shouldn’t take much comfort in that. ”
Other polling organizations have also warned against trying to use local election results to predict the outcome of the general election.
Ipsos Mori pollster Ben Page said: times radio: “To be honest, I think it’s for the birds at the moment. If you look at the swing of around 30 per cent in south Blackpool, if you look at the local election results, Labor won in a landslide in 1997. We haven’t seen results like this since just before the
Professor Sir John Curtis, a leading opinion pollster, was similarly dismissive of the use of local elections to predict Westminster seats. “It has been true for quite some time, certainly since the late 1980s, that the way people vote in local elections is not necessarily an accurate reflection of how they vote in general elections,” he told the BBC. Told.
Instead, ministers are urging Mr Sunak to drive home the message that voters will hand the keys to Downing Street to Sir Keir Starmer by backing Britain’s reforms.
A minister said Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen’s result gave the party hope, but pointed out Labor’s vote share showed it was not a “win or lose” party.
“The Reform vote they supported is causing some concerns and we need to get the message out there: ‘Vote Reform and win Labor’,” they said.
Most government insiders believe that only a rapidly improving economy can significantly change the party’s chances.
A Conservative aide said: “The Rwanda plan may bring some change and win back some voters, but will it win elections?” No, it’s all about economics. ”