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Sir Keir Starmer will join the King, Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden in marking the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings on Thursday, in one of the Western world’s biggest events of the year.
The brief, but nevertheless significant, appearance on the world stage will give the Labour leader a preview of what may come in his first few days as prime minister if his party wins next month’s general election.
In this scenario, Starmer, along with the new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, and Defence Secretary, John Healey, would travel to Washington less than a week after voting day to attend the most important NATO summit in years.
The 75th anniversary gathering will not only mark a ceremonial milestone in the alliance – it will be the first time Starmer will shake hands with President Biden as British prime minister – but also a landmark moment in global security.
Ukraine
NATO leaders are expected to press for stronger support for Ukraine to turn the tide of the war with Russia, as well as stronger deterrence against increasingly assertive countries such as Putin’s regime, China, Iran and North Korea.
There will also be discussions about building up NATO weapons, ammunition and heavy industry in case Putin decides to test the alliance’s strength by attacking across the Ukrainian border.
The increasingly urgent issue of continuing to supply arms and other supplies to Kiev is just one of the major foreign policy and defence challenges facing Starmer, Lammy and Healey, who will form the next government if opinion polls are correct.
In an interview I Earlier this week, Lammy said Labour has no plans “at this stage” to allow British-made munitions to be used on Russian soil – a point that defence experts say Labour will need to clarify if it takes power next month, especially as its current position puts it at odds with the US, several European countries and indeed the current UK government.
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the think tank Rus, said: “The next government will have a number of foreign policy challenges and threats, and Russia will be at the forefront not just of the war in Ukraine but also in terms of how Russia operates as a state and its influence in the UK.”
“The UK government and international allies will need to make crucial and urgent decisions about providing more targeted weapons, training and supplies to Ukraine, as well as better planning and coordinating their international support, to achieve greater results next year.”
China
Another pressing foreign policy challenge is how Western countries, including the UK, will deal with China.
There is growing concern in international, diplomatic and military circles that Beijing may try to invade Taiwan before the end of the century, posing an open challenge that Washington would have to respond to under either a Biden or Donald Trump administration.
As the UK is a leading member of NATO and a key ally of the US, the next UK government, whoever it is, will have to decide on its approach towards China.
The Labour government I There is an understanding that the UK will strengthen its ties with Beijing after a period in which the current Conservative Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, has distanced the UK from relations with Beijing, in large part because of his previous role in the “golden age” of relations with China and his apparent attempts to “sanitize” that relationship.
A focus on China under a Labour government would not herald a return to the golden age, but it will be a key part of Mr Lammy’s “progressive realism” of foreign policy – simply put, engaging with the bad guys in the world rather than hoping they’ll go away.
Lammy is likely to visit China within months of taking power, which would be the first visit by a British cabinet minister in more than a year.
The United States recently began formal renegotiations with Beijing to prevent a future international crisis over Taiwan.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week, marking the first meeting between the two sides since 2022.
Labour insiders say there is recognition that the British government needs to strengthen its engagement with China, and Lammy has set out three words for his planned approach to Beijing: “cooperate, challenge and compete”.
But experts say China’s increasingly assertive stance is creating new problems for European countries like Britain.
As Washington is increasingly drawn into the so-called Indo-Pacific focus, questions are emerging about how the United States envisions its future defense and strategic role in Europe.
This does not mean the US will withdraw its troops from the continent, but there are fears that a second term for Trump could make him cold towards Ukraine’s defence and even press for a peace deal between Moscow and Kiev on the existing front.
But as the United States leans into the China challenge, European NATO allies may need to increase their defense spending and strengthen their deterrent capabilities to ensure their continued security against Russia.
Luci’s Saville added: “The next administration will have to start implementing a more security-focused approach and make tough decisions about investments, anticipating cyber activity and dealing with more aggressive Chinese activity (for example, in the Indo-Pacific region, given that it has become an ASEAN dialogue partner).”
“There has been much speculation about whether China will try to take any action around Taiwan in the coming years to force Taiwan’s reunification.
“This will increasingly take away from U.S. supplies, commitment, personnel and time.
“So the European side of NATO, particularly the UK and France, will need to think about what this US tilt means for us.”
“Whether it’s Trump or Biden in the White House, they’re both going to take this approach.”
“There will be challenges to the future role of the United States in NATO. It is not unreasonable for the United States to expect Europe to play a bigger role and take a greater interest in its own security.”
Israel and Gaza
While the ongoing war in Gaza may not be as much of a foreign policy or defence issue for the British government as it is for the US, it is still a political issue for Starmer and Lammy, particularly as the Labour left believes they waited too long to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Labour said its existing policy of pushing for a two-state solution with Israeli security guarantees remained unchanged, but suggested Mr Starmer and Mr Lammy would enter into “serious” talks with “like-minded” countries about recognising a Palestinian state.
They will also need to reaffirm Britain’s position in Europe after years of uncertainty since Brexit. Just a week after the NATO summit, Britain will host a meeting of the European Political Community, with Ukraine and illegal immigration high on the agenda.
It will also be a test of Starmer’s compatibility with key EU leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, which will be crucial as Britain’s new government tries to hammer out a post-Brexit trade deal.
Mr Starmer last weekend denied rumours he might replace Mr Lammy with former cabinet minister Douglas Alexander, who is due to return to Westminster as a Labour MP next month.
That may seem like a fanciful proposition, given that Alexander has been out of Parliament for nearly a decade and Lammy spent nearly three as shadow foreign secretary, during which time he made 40 overseas visits, including to Europe, the Middle East, Brazil, India and, of course, Washington, where he built close relationships not only with his longtime friend Barack Obama but also with leading Democrats and Republicans, including senior members of the Trump campaign.
Although Mr Lammy is focused on the UK election, he kept in contact with Biden and Trump associates via WhatsApp during the campaign. I It is understood, and more face-to-face meetings are planned if Labour wins power.