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Reform UK has surged in the general election opinion polls following Nigel Farage’s return to the political frontline, according to a new UK survey. I He revealed.
According to BMG Research, the Conservatives are currently 19 points behind Labour and may have to “fight for survival” at the next election.
Opinion polls suggest Rishi Sunak outperformed Sir Keir Starmer in the first TV debate this week, but the Prime Minister’s approval rating among voters has not increased.
Overall, 42% of voters surveyed by BMG said they would support Labour, while 23% backed the Conservatives, with Reform UK coming in third with 16%.
The Opposition’s 19-point lead is the largest recorded by pollsters since the days of Prime Minister Liz Truss, and comes after a five-point increase in Reform Party support and a four-point fall in Conservative support compared to last week.
The survey was carried out on Tuesday night and Wednesday after Mr Farage announced his plans to stand in the parliamentary elections and become leader of the Reform Party.
He will take a central role in a seven-way debate on Friday night with other party leaders and representatives, including Labour’s Angela Rayner and Conservative stalwart Penny Mordaunt.
The Liberal Democrats remained unchanged at 9 percent, followed by the Greens on 6 percent.
“Farage’s return to politics makes the Conservative party’s electoral prospects truly dire,” said BMG’s Jota Papoulidou.
If our results are repeated on the 4th of July, it will be the Conservative Party’s worst ever election result, likely reducing its parliamentary lead to fewer than 100 seats.
This would represent a political upheaval that would dramatically change the political landscape and force the Conservative Party to fight for its survival.
“Our analysis also shows that Sunak will struggle to meaningfully narrow the Reform vote, which includes many economically left-leaning, anti-immigration voters. Many of these voters supported the Conservatives in 2019, but our results show that Sunak’s personal approval rating among this demographic is dismal, half that of Farage.”
“Labour had already backed the Conservatives into a corner, but Farage’s reforms look set to deal a decisive blow.”
A Conservative campaign source said: “A vote for Reform is a vote for Labour and there is nothing Keir Starmer can offer that will appeal to what Reform Party voters want.”
Of voters who watched the leaders’ debate on ITV on Tuesday, 40 per cent said the Prime Minister had performed well, 30 per cent supported Sir Keir and the rest were undecided.
But despite his apparent victory in the televised showdown, Mr Sunak’s popularity lags far behind the Labour leader, with a net approval rating of minus 40 to Mr Starmer’s minus 1.
BMG Research conducted online interviews with 1,534 British adults between 4 and 5 June. BMG is a member of the British Opinion Research Council and is bound by its regulations..
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